One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change

Raed Hamed; Corey Lesk; Theodore G. Shepherd; Henrique M. D. Goulart; Linda van Garderen; Bart van den Hurk; Dim Coumou

doi:10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x

One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change

Raed Hamed^*
, Corey Lesk
, Theodore G. Shepherd
, Henrique M. D. Goulart
, Linda van Garderen
, Bart van den Hurk
, Dim Coumou

^*Corresponding author for this work

Sub Dynamics Meteorology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

In 2012, soybean crops failed in the three largest producing regions due to spatially compounded hot and dry weather across North and South America. Here, we present different impact storylines of the 2012 event, calculated by combining a statistical crop model with climate model simulations of 2012 conditions under pre-industrial, present-day (+1 °C), and future (+2 °C) conditions. These simulations use the ECHAM6 climate model and maintain the same observed seasonally evolving atmospheric circulation. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic warming strongly amplifies the impacts of such a large-scale circulation pattern on global soybean production. Although the drought intensity is similar under different warming levels, larger crop losses are driven not only by warmer temperatures but also by stronger heat-moisture interactions. We estimate that one-third of the global soybean production deficit in 2012 is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Future warming (+2 °C above pre-industrial) would further exacerbate production deficits by one-half compared to present-day 2012 conditions. This highlights the increasing intensity of global soybean production shocks with warming, requiring urgent adaptation strategies.

Original language	English
Article number	199
Number of pages	9
Journal	Communications Earth & Environment
Volume	6
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x
Publication status	Published - 12 Mar 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025.

Funding

We thank the maintainers and funders of the BAZIS cluster at VU Amsterdam for computational resources. This work was supported by the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (RECEIPT; grant no. 820712) (R.H., D.C., H.M.D.G., T.G.S. and B.V.D.H.) and the European Union\u2019s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (XAIDA; grant no. 101003469) (R.H., D.C. and T.G.S.). We thank F. Feser for facilitating access to the storyline and ECHAM_SN datasets.

Funders	Funder number
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
RECEIPT	820712
XAIDA	101003469

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Impact
Stress
Temperature
Trends

Access to Document

10.1038/s43247-025-02171-xLicence: CC BY

s43247-025-02171-xFinal published version, 1.6 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change",

abstract = "In 2012, soybean crops failed in the three largest producing regions due to spatially compounded hot and dry weather across North and South America. Here, we present different impact storylines of the 2012 event, calculated by combining a statistical crop model with climate model simulations of 2012 conditions under pre-industrial, present-day (+1 °C), and future (+2 °C) conditions. These simulations use the ECHAM6 climate model and maintain the same observed seasonally evolving atmospheric circulation. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic warming strongly amplifies the impacts of such a large-scale circulation pattern on global soybean production. Although the drought intensity is similar under different warming levels, larger crop losses are driven not only by warmer temperatures but also by stronger heat-moisture interactions. We estimate that one-third of the global soybean production deficit in 2012 is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Future warming (+2 °C above pre-industrial) would further exacerbate production deficits by one-half compared to present-day 2012 conditions. This highlights the increasing intensity of global soybean production shocks with warming, requiring urgent adaptation strategies.",

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author = "Raed Hamed and Corey Lesk and Shepherd, \{Theodore G.\} and Goulart, \{Henrique M. D.\} and \{van Garderen\}, Linda and \{van den Hurk\}, Bart and Dim Coumou",

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year = "2025",

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doi = "10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x",

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AU - Hamed, Raed

AU - Lesk, Corey

AU - Shepherd, Theodore G.

AU - Goulart, Henrique M. D.

AU - van Garderen, Linda

AU - van den Hurk, Bart

AU - Coumou, Dim

PY - 2025/3/12

Y1 - 2025/3/12

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AB - In 2012, soybean crops failed in the three largest producing regions due to spatially compounded hot and dry weather across North and South America. Here, we present different impact storylines of the 2012 event, calculated by combining a statistical crop model with climate model simulations of 2012 conditions under pre-industrial, present-day (+1 °C), and future (+2 °C) conditions. These simulations use the ECHAM6 climate model and maintain the same observed seasonally evolving atmospheric circulation. Our results demonstrate that anthropogenic warming strongly amplifies the impacts of such a large-scale circulation pattern on global soybean production. Although the drought intensity is similar under different warming levels, larger crop losses are driven not only by warmer temperatures but also by stronger heat-moisture interactions. We estimate that one-third of the global soybean production deficit in 2012 is attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Future warming (+2 °C above pre-industrial) would further exacerbate production deficits by one-half compared to present-day 2012 conditions. This highlights the increasing intensity of global soybean production shocks with warming, requiring urgent adaptation strategies.

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One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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