Ocean eddies strongly affect global mean sea-level projections

René M. van Westen; Henk A. Dijkstra

doi:10.1126/SCIADV.ABF1674

Ocean eddies strongly affect global mean sea-level projections

René M. van Westen^*, Henk A. Dijkstra

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Current sea-level projections are based on climate models in which the effects of ocean eddies are parameterized. Here, we investigate the effect of ocean eddies on global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) projections, using climate model simulations. Explicitly resolving ocean eddies leads to a more realistic Southern Ocean temperature distribution and volume transport. These quantities control the rate of basal melt, which eventually results in Antarctic mass loss. In a model with resolved ocean eddies, the Southern Ocean temperature changes lead to a smaller Antarctic GMSLR contribution compared to the same model in which eddies are parameterized. As a result, the projected GMSLR is about 25% lower at the end of this century in the eddying model. Relatively small-scale ocean eddies can hence have profound large-scale effects and consequently affect GMSLR projections.

Original language	English
Article number	eabf1674
Pages (from-to)	1-11
Journal	Science advances
Volume	7
Issue number	15
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/SCIADV.ABF1674
Publication status	Published - 9 Apr 2021

Bibliographical note

Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).

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title = "Ocean eddies strongly affect global mean sea-level projections",

abstract = "Current sea-level projections are based on climate models in which the effects of ocean eddies are parameterized. Here, we investigate the effect of ocean eddies on global mean sea-level rise (GMSLR) projections, using climate model simulations. Explicitly resolving ocean eddies leads to a more realistic Southern Ocean temperature distribution and volume transport. These quantities control the rate of basal melt, which eventually results in Antarctic mass loss. In a model with resolved ocean eddies, the Southern Ocean temperature changes lead to a smaller Antarctic GMSLR contribution compared to the same model in which eddies are parameterized. As a result, the projected GMSLR is about 25% lower at the end of this century in the eddying model. Relatively small-scale ocean eddies can hence have profound large-scale effects and consequently affect GMSLR projections.",

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Ocean eddies strongly affect global mean sea-level projections

Abstract

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