Numerical analysis of the potential for mixed thermal convection in the Buda Thermal Karst, Hungary

Study region: Buda Thermal Karst system, Hungary. Study focus: The pilot area has high geothermal potential characterized by prominent thermal anomalies, such as thermal springs and spas which tap the Triassic carbonate aquifers. Therefore, numerical simulations were carried out to examine the temperature field and flow pattern considering three successive heat transport mechanisms: thermal conduction, forced and mixed thermal convection in order to highlight the role of different driving forces of groundwater flow in the Buda Thermal Karst. New hydrological insights for the region: Compared to thermal conduction, topography-driven heat advection increases the surface heat flux. The superimposed effect of free thermal convection facilitates the formation of time-dependent mixed thermal convection from the deep carbonate layers. The Nusselt number varied between Nu = 1.56 and 5.25, while the recharge rate (R) ranged from R = 178 mm/yr to 250 mm/yr. Radiogenic heat production and hydraulically conductive faults have only a minor influence on the basin-scale temperature field and flow pattern. Boundary conditions prescribed on the temperature and pressure can considerably affect the numerical results. In each scenario, independently of the model parameters, time-dependent mixed thermal convection evolved both in the deep and the confined parts of the karstified carbonates of the Buda Thermal Karst system.