New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature

Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst; Francesco Bosello; Shouro Dasgupta; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Andries Hof; Marian Leimbach; Ramiro Parrado; Franziska Piontek; Gabriele Standardi; Detlef van Vuuren

doi:10.1038/s41558-023-01636-1

New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature

Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst
, Francesco Bosello
, Shouro Dasgupta
, Laurent Drouet
, Johannes Emmerling
, Andries Hof
, Marian Leimbach
, Ramiro Parrado
, Franziska Piontek
, Gabriele Standardi
, Detlef van Vuuren

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change impacts based on physical impact models. We show that with medium estimates for damage functions, global damages are in the range of 10% to 12% of GDP by 2100 in a baseline scenario with 3 °C temperature change, and about 2% in a well-below 2 °C scenario. These damages are much higher than previous estimates in benefit-cost studies, resulting in optimal temperatures below 2 °C with central estimates of damages and discount rates. Moreover, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to 3.9, even without considering damages that could not be accounted for, such as biodiversity losses, health and tipping points.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	434-441
Number of pages	8
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	13
Issue number	5
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01636-1
Publication status	Published - May 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

Funding

The research presented in this paper and all authors benefitted from funding under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation under Grant Agreement No. 776479 for the project CO-designing the Assessment of Climate Change costs (COACCH, https://www.coacch.eu ) and from the European Commission Horizon 2020 Programme H2020/2019–2023 under Grant Agreement No. 821124 (NAVIGATE).

Funders	Funder number
European Commission Horizon 2020	821124
European Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme for Research and Innovation	776479

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Carbon emissions
Climate-change
Model
Social cost
Targets
Uncertainty

Access to Document

10.1038/s41558-023-01636-1

s41558-023-01636-1Final published version, 2.51 MBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

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title = "New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature",

abstract = "Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change impacts based on physical impact models. We show that with medium estimates for damage functions, global damages are in the range of 10\% to 12\% of GDP by 2100 in a baseline scenario with 3 °C temperature change, and about 2\% in a well-below 2 °C scenario. These damages are much higher than previous estimates in benefit-cost studies, resulting in optimal temperatures below 2 °C with central estimates of damages and discount rates. Moreover, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to 3.9, even without considering damages that could not be accounted for, such as biodiversity losses, health and tipping points.",

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AU - Wijst, Kaj-Ivar van der

AU - Bosello, Francesco

AU - Dasgupta, Shouro

AU - Drouet, Laurent

AU - Emmerling, Johannes

AU - Hof, Andries

AU - Leimbach, Marian

AU - Parrado, Ramiro

AU - Piontek, Franziska

AU - Standardi, Gabriele

AU - Vuuren, Detlef van

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AB - Economic analyses of global climate change have been criticized for their poor representation of climate change damages. Here we develop and apply aggregate damage functions in three economic Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with different degrees of complexity. The damage functions encompass a wide but still incomplete set of climate change impacts based on physical impact models. We show that with medium estimates for damage functions, global damages are in the range of 10% to 12% of GDP by 2100 in a baseline scenario with 3 °C temperature change, and about 2% in a well-below 2 °C scenario. These damages are much higher than previous estimates in benefit-cost studies, resulting in optimal temperatures below 2 °C with central estimates of damages and discount rates. Moreover, we find a benefit-cost ratio of 1.5 to 3.9, even without considering damages that could not be accounted for, such as biodiversity losses, health and tipping points.

KW - Carbon emissions

KW - Climate-change

KW - Model

KW - Social cost

KW - Targets

KW - Uncertainty

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JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

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ER -

New damage curves and multimodel analysis suggest lower optimal temperature

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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Cite this