Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement

Heleen L van Soest; Michel G J den Elzen; Detlef P van Vuuren

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-22294-x

Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement

Heleen L van Soest^*
, Michel G J den Elzen
, Detlef P van Vuuren

^*Corresponding author for this work

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions or neutrality targets. However, most of the information on emissions neutrality (such as timing) is provided for the global level. Here, we look at national-level neutrality-years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. These results indicate that domestic net zero greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions in Brazil and the USA are reached a decade earlier than the global average, and in India and Indonesia later than global average. These results depend on choices like the accounting of land-use emissions. The results also show that carbon storage and afforestation capacity, income, share of non-CO2 emissions, and transport sector emissions affect the variance in projected phase-out years across countries. We further compare these results to an alternative approach, using equity-based rules to establish target years. These results can inform policymakers on net-zero targets.

Original language	English
Article number	2140
Pages (from-to)	1-9
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	12
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22294-x
Publication status	Published - Dec 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement no. 821471 (ENGAGE). The work is largely based on scenarios from integrated assessment modelling studies published in the CD-LINKS database (financed by European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 642147). We are very grateful to the model teams who submitted the scenarios that were used here, notably Shinichiro Fujimori (AIM), Mathijs Harmsen (IMAGE), Oliver Fricko (MESSAGE), Jacques Despres (POLES), Christoph Bertram (REMIND) and Laurent Drouet (WITCH). We also thank Maarten van den Berg, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst and Hans Visser (PBL) for their invaluable contributions.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).

Keywords

climate-change mitigation
energy modelling
projection and prediction

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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s41467-021-22294-xFinal published version, 1.41 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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abstract = "Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions or neutrality targets. However, most of the information on emissions neutrality (such as timing) is provided for the global level. Here, we look at national-level neutrality-years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. These results indicate that domestic net zero greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions in Brazil and the USA are reached a decade earlier than the global average, and in India and Indonesia later than global average. These results depend on choices like the accounting of land-use emissions. The results also show that carbon storage and afforestation capacity, income, share of non-CO2 emissions, and transport sector emissions affect the variance in projected phase-out years across countries. We further compare these results to an alternative approach, using equity-based rules to establish target years. These results can inform policymakers on net-zero targets.",

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Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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