Multimodel and Multiconstituent Scenario Construction for Future Water Quality

A. F. Bouwman; I. Bärlund; A. H.W. Beusen; M. Flörke; M. Gramberger; J. Rivera Cardona; J. Podgorski; J. van den Roovaart; B. Grizzetti; A. B.G. Janssen; R. Kumar; S. Langan; S. Poikane; B. M. Spears; M. Strokal; T. Tang; T. A. Troost; O. Vigiak; M.T.H. van Vliet; Y. Vystavna; M. Wang; N. Hofstra

doi:10.1021/acs.estlett.4c00789

Multimodel and Multiconstituent Scenario Construction for Future Water Quality

A. F. Bouwman^*
, I. Bärlund
, A. H.W. Beusen
, M. Flörke
, M. Gramberger
, J. Rivera Cardona
, J. Podgorski
, J. van den Roovaart
, B. Grizzetti
, A. B.G. Janssen
, R. Kumar
, S. Langan
, S. Poikane
, B. M. Spears
, M. Strokal
, T. Tang
, T. A. Troost
, O. Vigiak
, M.T.H. van Vliet
, Y. Vystavna

M. Wang, N. Hofstra^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

Abstract

Freshwater pollution is, together with climate change, one of today’s most severe and pervasive threats to the global environment. Comprehensive and spatially explicit scenarios covering a wide range of constituents for freshwater quality are currently scarce. In this Global Perspective paper, we propose a novel model-based approach for five water quality constituents relevant for human and ecosystem health (nitrogen, biochemical oxygen demand, anthropogenic chemicals, fecal coliform, and arsenic). To project the driving forces and consequences for emissions and impacts, a set of common data based on the same assumptions was prepared and used in different large-scale water quality models including all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural changes, as well as threshold concentrations to determine the risk for human and ecosystem health. The analysis portrays the strong links among water quality, socio-economic development, and lifestyle. Internal consistency of assumptions and input data is a prerequisite for constructing comparable scenarios using different models to support targeted policy development.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1272–1280
Number of pages	9
Journal	Environmental Science and Technology Letters
Volume	11
Issue number	12
Early online date	22 Nov 2024
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.4c00789
Publication status	Published - 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society.

Funding

The authors are grateful to Melissa Denecke (IAEA) for her comments on an earlier version of this paper and Jos van Gils for his contribution to the Wflow-DWAQ description. The working group contributes to the work stream "Water Quality Modelling" for the global multistakeholder World Water Quality Alliance (WWQA) aiming to provide global water quality assessments for the current and future situations. This Global Perspective paper is output from two workshops organized by the WWQA workstream with seed money provided by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). M.F. and J.R.C.: Research work was performed as part of the project "Erarbeitung, Testung und pilothafte Anwendung einer integrierten und skalenubergreifenden Analyse- und Bewertungsmethodik der Wasserqualitat von Oberflachenund Grundwasser fur eine globale, internetbasierte Wasserqualitatsplattform", GlobeWQ (02WGR1 527C), carried out with the support of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within its research initiative "Global Resource Water (GRoW)".

Funders	Funder number
United Nations Environment Programme	02WGR1 527C
United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)
Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
SDG 6 Clean Water and Sanitation
SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 15 Life on Land

Keywords

Anthropogenic chemicals
Arsenic
Biological oxygen demand
Fecal coliform
Future
Global
Groundwater
Nitrogen
Scenario
Surface water
Water quality

Access to Document

10.1021/acs.estlett.4c00789Licence: CC BY

bouwman-et-al-2024-multimodel-and-multiconstituent-scenario-construction-for-future-water-qualityFinal published version, 3.13 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Bouwman, A. F., Bärlund, I., Beusen, A. H. W., Flörke, M., Gramberger, M., Cardona, J. R., Podgorski, J., van den Roovaart, J., Grizzetti, B., Janssen, A. B. G., Kumar, R., Langan, S., Poikane, S., Spears, B. M., Strokal, M., Tang, T., Troost, T. A., Vigiak, O., van Vliet, M. T. H., ... Hofstra, N. (2024). Multimodel and Multiconstituent Scenario Construction for Future Water Quality. Environmental Science and Technology Letters, 11(12), 1272–1280. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.4c00789

@article{c82b02e91328422cbc6624d17770a7f3,

title = "Multimodel and Multiconstituent Scenario Construction for Future Water Quality",

abstract = "Freshwater pollution is, together with climate change, one of today{\textquoteright}s most severe and pervasive threats to the global environment. Comprehensive and spatially explicit scenarios covering a wide range of constituents for freshwater quality are currently scarce. In this Global Perspective paper, we propose a novel model-based approach for five water quality constituents relevant for human and ecosystem health (nitrogen, biochemical oxygen demand, anthropogenic chemicals, fecal coliform, and arsenic). To project the driving forces and consequences for emissions and impacts, a set of common data based on the same assumptions was prepared and used in different large-scale water quality models including all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural changes, as well as threshold concentrations to determine the risk for human and ecosystem health. The analysis portrays the strong links among water quality, socio-economic development, and lifestyle. Internal consistency of assumptions and input data is a prerequisite for constructing comparable scenarios using different models to support targeted policy development.",

keywords = "Anthropogenic chemicals, Arsenic, Biological oxygen demand, Fecal coliform, Future, Global, Groundwater, Nitrogen, Scenario, Surface water, Water quality",

author = "Bouwman, \{A. F.\} and I. B{\"a}rlund and Beusen, \{A. H.W.\} and M. Fl{\"o}rke and M. Gramberger and Cardona, \{J. Rivera\} and J. Podgorski and \{van den Roovaart\}, J. and B. Grizzetti and Janssen, \{A. B.G.\} and R. Kumar and S. Langan and S. Poikane and Spears, \{B. M.\} and M. Strokal and T. Tang and Troost, \{T. A.\} and O. Vigiak and \{van Vliet\}, M.T.H. and Y. Vystavna and M. Wang and N. Hofstra",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2024 The Authors. Published by American Chemical Society.",

year = "2024",

doi = "10.1021/acs.estlett.4c00789",

language = "English",

volume = "11",

pages = "1272–1280",

journal = "Environmental Science and Technology Letters",

issn = "2328-8930",

publisher = "American Chemical Society",

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Bouwman, AF, Bärlund, I, Beusen, AHW, Flörke, M, Gramberger, M, Cardona, JR, Podgorski, J, van den Roovaart, J, Grizzetti, B, Janssen, ABG, Kumar, R, Langan, S, Poikane, S, Spears, BM, Strokal, M, Tang, T, Troost, TA, Vigiak, O, van Vliet, MTH, Vystavna, Y, Wang, M & Hofstra, N 2024, 'Multimodel and Multiconstituent Scenario Construction for Future Water Quality', Environmental Science and Technology Letters, vol. 11, no. 12, pp. 1272–1280. https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.estlett.4c00789

TY - JOUR

T1 - Multimodel and Multiconstituent Scenario Construction for Future Water Quality

AU - Bouwman, A. F.

AU - Bärlund, I.

AU - Beusen, A. H.W.

AU - Flörke, M.

AU - Gramberger, M.

AU - Cardona, J. Rivera

AU - Podgorski, J.

AU - van den Roovaart, J.

AU - Grizzetti, B.

AU - Janssen, A. B.G.

AU - Kumar, R.

AU - Langan, S.

AU - Poikane, S.

AU - Spears, B. M.

AU - Strokal, M.

AU - Tang, T.

AU - Troost, T. A.

AU - Vigiak, O.

AU - van Vliet, M.T.H.

AU - Vystavna, Y.

AU - Wang, M.

AU - Hofstra, N.

PY - 2024

Y1 - 2024

N2 - Freshwater pollution is, together with climate change, one of today’s most severe and pervasive threats to the global environment. Comprehensive and spatially explicit scenarios covering a wide range of constituents for freshwater quality are currently scarce. In this Global Perspective paper, we propose a novel model-based approach for five water quality constituents relevant for human and ecosystem health (nitrogen, biochemical oxygen demand, anthropogenic chemicals, fecal coliform, and arsenic). To project the driving forces and consequences for emissions and impacts, a set of common data based on the same assumptions was prepared and used in different large-scale water quality models including all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural changes, as well as threshold concentrations to determine the risk for human and ecosystem health. The analysis portrays the strong links among water quality, socio-economic development, and lifestyle. Internal consistency of assumptions and input data is a prerequisite for constructing comparable scenarios using different models to support targeted policy development.

AB - Freshwater pollution is, together with climate change, one of today’s most severe and pervasive threats to the global environment. Comprehensive and spatially explicit scenarios covering a wide range of constituents for freshwater quality are currently scarce. In this Global Perspective paper, we propose a novel model-based approach for five water quality constituents relevant for human and ecosystem health (nitrogen, biochemical oxygen demand, anthropogenic chemicals, fecal coliform, and arsenic). To project the driving forces and consequences for emissions and impacts, a set of common data based on the same assumptions was prepared and used in different large-scale water quality models including all relevant demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural changes, as well as threshold concentrations to determine the risk for human and ecosystem health. The analysis portrays the strong links among water quality, socio-economic development, and lifestyle. Internal consistency of assumptions and input data is a prerequisite for constructing comparable scenarios using different models to support targeted policy development.

KW - Anthropogenic chemicals

KW - Arsenic

KW - Biological oxygen demand

KW - Fecal coliform

KW - Future

KW - Global

KW - Groundwater

KW - Nitrogen

KW - Scenario

KW - Surface water

KW - Water quality

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85210082846

U2 - 10.1021/acs.estlett.4c00789

DO - 10.1021/acs.estlett.4c00789

M3 - Review article

AN - SCOPUS:85210082846

SN - 2328-8930

VL - 11

SP - 1272

EP - 1280

JO - Environmental Science and Technology Letters

JF - Environmental Science and Technology Letters

IS - 12

ER -

Multimodel and Multiconstituent Scenario Construction for Future Water Quality

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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