Abstract
Global projections indicate that approximately 500 Mha of new arable land will be required to meet crop demand by 2050. Applying a dynamic phosphorus (P) pool simulator under different socioeconomic scenarios, we find that cropland expansion can be avoided with less than 7% additional cumulative P fertilizer over 2006–2050 when comparing with cropland expansion scenarios, mostly targeted at nutrient-depleted soils of sub-Saharan Africa. Additional P fertilizer would replenish P withdrawn from crop production, thereby allowing higher productivity levels. We also show that further agronomic improvements such as those that allow for better (legacy) P use in soils could reduce both P outflows to freshwater and coastal ecosystems and the overall demand for P fertilizer.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 509-518 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Nature Food |
| Volume | 2 |
| Issue number | 7 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Jul 2021 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:We thank M. van Ittersum for stimulating discussions and constructive comments. J.M.M. received funding from the Dutch National Research Agenda, number NWA.1235.18.201. A.F.B. and A.H.W.B. received support from the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency through in-kind contributions to The New Delta 2014 ALW project no. 869.15.015 and no. 869.15.014. L.L. is supported by a Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO)-Spain and European Commission ERDF Ramón y Cajal grant (RYC-2016-20269) and Programa Propio from UPM, and also acknowledges MINECO (AgroSceNA-UP, PID2019-107972RB-I00).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
Funding
We thank M. van Ittersum for stimulating discussions and constructive comments. J.M.M. received funding from the Dutch National Research Agenda, number NWA.1235.18.201. A.F.B. and A.H.W.B. received support from the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency through in-kind contributions to The New Delta 2014 ALW project no. 869.15.015 and no. 869.15.014. L.L. is supported by a Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO)-Spain and European Commission ERDF Ramón y Cajal grant (RYC-2016-20269) and Programa Propio from UPM, and also acknowledges MINECO (AgroSceNA-UP, PID2019-107972RB-I00).
