Abstract
This paper presents an assessment of the value added of a Monte Carlo
analysis of the uncertainties in the Netherlands inventory of greenhouse
gases over a Tier 1 analysis. It also examines which parameters
contributed the most to the total emission uncertainty and identified
areas of high priority for the further improvement of the accuracy and
quality of the inventory. The Monte Carlo analysis resulted in an
uncertainty range in total GHG emissions of 4.1% in 2004 and 5.4% in
1990 (with LUCF) and 5.3% (in 1990) and 3.9% (in 2004) for GHG emissions
without LUCF. Uncertainty in the trend was estimated at 4.5%. The values
are in the same order of magnitude as those estimated in the Tier 1. The
results show that accounting for correlation among parameters is
important, and for the Netherlands inventory it has a larger impact on
the uncertainty in the trend than on the uncertainty in the total GHG
emissions. The main contributors to overall uncertainty are found to be
related to N 2O emissions from agricultural soils, the N
2O implied emission factors of Nitric Acid Production, CH
4 from managed solid waste disposal on land, and the implied
emission factor of CH 4 from manure management from cattle.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 8263-8272 |
Journal | Atmospheric Environment |
Volume | 42 |
Publication status | Published - 2008 |