Monitoring Rates of Subsidence and Relative Sea-Level Rise in Low-Elevation Coastal Zones: A New Approach

Low-elevation coastal zones (LECZs) that often host large population centers are particularly vulnerable to accelerating rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Traditionally, tide-gauge records are used to obtain quantitative data on rates of RSLR, given that they are perceived to capture the rise of the sea surface, as well as land subsidence which is often substantial in such settings. We argue here that tide gauges in LECZs often provide ambiguous data because they ultimately measure RSLR with respect to a benchmark that is typically anchored tens of meters deep. This is problematic because the prime target of interest is usually the rate of RSLR with respect to the land surface. We illustrate this problem with newly obtained rod surface elevation table - marker horizon (RSET-MH) data from coastal Louisiana (n = 274) that show that shallow subsidence in the uppermost 5-10 m accounts for 60-85% of total subsidence. Since benchmarks in this region are anchored at 23 m depth on average, tide-gauge records by definition do not capture this important process and thus underestimate RSLR by a considerable amount. We show how RSET-MH data, combined with GPS and satellite altimetry data, enable us to bypass this problem. Rates of RSLR in coastal Louisiana over the past 6-10 years are 12 ± 8 mm/yr, considerably higher than numbers reported in recent studies based on tide-gauge analysis. Subsidence rates, averaged across this region, total about 9 mm/yr. It is likely that the problems with tide-gauge data are not unique to coastal Louisiana, so we suggest that our new approach to RSLR measurements may be useful in LECZs worldwide, with considerable implications for metropolitan areas like New Orleans that are located within such settings.