Modeling the coal-to-gas switch potentials in the power sector: A case study of China

Coal-to-gas switch in the electricity sector is of great significance for tackling air pollution and mitigating climate change, but the evidences for the provincial or regional coal-to-gas switch potentials are still lacked in China. Using the generator level data, this study develops three optimization models to estimate the physical, economic and environmental potentials of coal-to-gas switch. Key findings of this study are summarized as follows: (1) The maximum physical potentials of coal-to-gas switch are 364.78 TWh, representing 8.79% of the total coal generation in 2017. (2) Spatial distributions of the estimated switch potentials are very uneven, EastChina grid region has larger switch potentials, while Northwest China grid region holds smaller switch potentials. (3) The switching point comes with the reductions of gas prices (20%–30%) and the internalization of carbon emission cost (100 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton). (4) The heterogeneity of coal-to-gas switch is significant in different provinces, and the provincial differences of switching heat rates can be about 30 gce/kWh.