Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change

Stephen E. Darby, Frances Dunn, Robert J. Nicholls, Sagy Cohen, Christiane Zarfl

Research output: Contribution to conferenceAbstractAcademic

Abstract

Deltas are important hot spots for climate change impacts on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Most of the world's deltas are sinking as a result of natural and anthropogenic subsidence and due to eustatic sea level rise. The ability to predict rates of delta aggradation is therefore critical to assessments of the extent to which sedimentation can potentially offset sea level rise, but our ability to make such predictions is severely hindered by a lack of insight into future trends of the fluvial sediment load supplied to their deltas by feeder watersheds. To address this gap we investigate fluvial sediment fluxes under future environmental change for a selection (47) of the world's major river deltas. Specifically, we employed the numerical model WBMsed to project future variations in mean annual fluvial sediment loads under a range of environmental change scenarios that account for changes in climate, socio-economics and dam construction. Our projections indicate a clear decrease (by 34 to 41% on average, depending on the specific scenario) in future fluvial sediment supply to most of the 47 deltas. These reductions in sediment delivery are driven primarily by anthropogenic disturbances, with reservoir construction being the most influential factor globally. Our results indicate the importance of developing new management strategies for reservoir construction and operation.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes
EventAGU Fall Meeting 2017 - New Orleans, United States
Duration: 11 Dec 201715 Dec 2017
https://fallmeeting.agu.org/2017/#

Conference

ConferenceAGU Fall Meeting 2017
Abbreviated titleAGU Fall Meeting 2017
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityNew Orleans
Period11/12/1715/12/17
Internet address

Bibliographical note

2017AGUFMEP14C..03D

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Model Projections of Future Fluvial Sediment Delivery to Major Deltas Under Environmental Change'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this