Methane emissions decreased in fossil fuel exploitation and sustainably increased in microbial source sectors during 1990–2020

Naveen Chandra; Prabir K. Patra; Ryo Fujita; Lena Höglund-Isaksson; Taku Umezawa; Daisuke Goto; Shinji Morimoto; Bruce H. Vaughn; Thomas Röckmann

doi:10.1038/s43247-024-01286-x

Methane emissions decreased in fossil fuel exploitation and sustainably increased in microbial source sectors during 1990–2020

Naveen Chandra^*
, Prabir K. Patra^*
, Ryo Fujita
, Lena Höglund-Isaksson
, Taku Umezawa
, Daisuke Goto
, Shinji Morimoto
, Bruce H. Vaughn
, Thomas Röckmann

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Methane (CH₄) emission reduction to limit warming to 1.5 °C can be tracked by analyzing CH₄ concentration and its isotopic composition (δ¹³C, δD) simultaneously. Based on reconstructions of the temporal trends, latitudinal, and vertical gradient of CH₄ and δ¹³C from 1985 to 2020 using an atmospheric chemistry transport model, we show (1) emission reductions from oil and gas exploitation (ONG) since the 1990s stabilized the atmospheric CH₄ growth rate in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and (2) emissions from farmed animals, waste management, and coal mining contributed to the increase in CH₄ since 2006. Our findings support neither the increasing ONG emissions reported by the EDGARv6 inventory during 1990–2020 nor the large unconventional emissions increase reported by the GAINSv4 inventory since 2006. Total fossil fuel emissions remained stable from 2000 to 2020, most likely because the decrease in ONG emissions in some regions offset the increase in coal mining emissions in China.

Original language	English
Article number	147
Number of pages	15
Journal	Communications Earth and Environment
Volume	5
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01286-x
Publication status	Published - 17 Apr 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2024.

Funding

This work was made possible by the exceptional efforts of NOAA ESRL, CU-INSTAAR, Tohoku University (TU), and the National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) in providing high-quality atmospheric measurements of CH4 and stable isotope compositions. We extend our gratitude to the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE) Science Program staff and the Norwegian Polar Institute for their diligent collection of air samples in Syowa, Antarctica, and Ny-\u00C5lesund, Svalbard. Special thanks to Prof. Akihiko Ito for sharing wetland and rice emission data from the VISIT model, Dr. Sourish Basu for recommending the mass conservation test (Fig.\u00A0S5), and Dr. John Miller for highlighting KIE uncertainty issues at the TransCom-2022 meeting in Wageningen. Earth Simulator was used for simulation via the support of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. This research was supported by the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS-II) project (grant no. JPMXD1420318865), funded by Japan\u2019s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). This work was made possible by the exceptional efforts of NOAA ESRL, CU-INSTAAR, Tohoku University (TU), and the National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) in providing high-quality atmospheric measurements of CH and stable isotope compositions. We extend our gratitude to the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition (JARE) Science Program staff and the Norwegian Polar Institute for their diligent collection of air samples in Syowa, Antarctica, and Ny-\u00C5lesund, Svalbard. Special thanks to Prof. Akihiko Ito for sharing wetland and rice emission data from the VISIT model, Dr. Sourish Basu for recommending the mass conservation test (Fig. ), and Dr. John Miller for highlighting KIE uncertainty issues at the TransCom-2022 meeting in Wageningen. Earth Simulator was used for simulation via the support of the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. This research was supported by the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS-II) project (grant no. JPMXD1420318865), funded by Japan\u2019s Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). 4

Funders	Funder number
CU-INSTAAR
Tohoku University
Norsk Polarinstitutt
NOAA ESRL
Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology	JPMXD1420318865
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
National Institute of Polar Research	JPMXD1420318865
National Institute of Polar Research

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title = "Methane emissions decreased in fossil fuel exploitation and sustainably increased in microbial source sectors during 1990–2020",

abstract = "Methane (CH4) emission reduction to limit warming to 1.5 °C can be tracked by analyzing CH4 concentration and its isotopic composition (δ13C, δD) simultaneously. Based on reconstructions of the temporal trends, latitudinal, and vertical gradient of CH4 and δ13C from 1985 to 2020 using an atmospheric chemistry transport model, we show (1) emission reductions from oil and gas exploitation (ONG) since the 1990s stabilized the atmospheric CH4 growth rate in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and (2) emissions from farmed animals, waste management, and coal mining contributed to the increase in CH4 since 2006. Our findings support neither the increasing ONG emissions reported by the EDGARv6 inventory during 1990–2020 nor the large unconventional emissions increase reported by the GAINSv4 inventory since 2006. Total fossil fuel emissions remained stable from 2000 to 2020, most likely because the decrease in ONG emissions in some regions offset the increase in coal mining emissions in China.",

author = "Naveen Chandra and Patra, \{Prabir K.\} and Ryo Fujita and Lena H{\"o}glund-Isaksson and Taku Umezawa and Daisuke Goto and Shinji Morimoto and Vaughn, \{Bruce H.\} and Thomas R{\"o}ckmann",

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year = "2024",

month = apr,

day = "17",

doi = "10.1038/s43247-024-01286-x",

language = "English",

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AU - Chandra, Naveen

AU - Patra, Prabir K.

AU - Fujita, Ryo

AU - Höglund-Isaksson, Lena

AU - Umezawa, Taku

AU - Goto, Daisuke

AU - Morimoto, Shinji

AU - Vaughn, Bruce H.

AU - Röckmann, Thomas

PY - 2024/4/17

Y1 - 2024/4/17

N2 - Methane (CH4) emission reduction to limit warming to 1.5 °C can be tracked by analyzing CH4 concentration and its isotopic composition (δ13C, δD) simultaneously. Based on reconstructions of the temporal trends, latitudinal, and vertical gradient of CH4 and δ13C from 1985 to 2020 using an atmospheric chemistry transport model, we show (1) emission reductions from oil and gas exploitation (ONG) since the 1990s stabilized the atmospheric CH4 growth rate in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and (2) emissions from farmed animals, waste management, and coal mining contributed to the increase in CH4 since 2006. Our findings support neither the increasing ONG emissions reported by the EDGARv6 inventory during 1990–2020 nor the large unconventional emissions increase reported by the GAINSv4 inventory since 2006. Total fossil fuel emissions remained stable from 2000 to 2020, most likely because the decrease in ONG emissions in some regions offset the increase in coal mining emissions in China.

AB - Methane (CH4) emission reduction to limit warming to 1.5 °C can be tracked by analyzing CH4 concentration and its isotopic composition (δ13C, δD) simultaneously. Based on reconstructions of the temporal trends, latitudinal, and vertical gradient of CH4 and δ13C from 1985 to 2020 using an atmospheric chemistry transport model, we show (1) emission reductions from oil and gas exploitation (ONG) since the 1990s stabilized the atmospheric CH4 growth rate in the late 1990s and early 2000s, and (2) emissions from farmed animals, waste management, and coal mining contributed to the increase in CH4 since 2006. Our findings support neither the increasing ONG emissions reported by the EDGARv6 inventory during 1990–2020 nor the large unconventional emissions increase reported by the GAINSv4 inventory since 2006. Total fossil fuel emissions remained stable from 2000 to 2020, most likely because the decrease in ONG emissions in some regions offset the increase in coal mining emissions in China.

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M3 - Article

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SN - 2662-4435

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JO - Communications Earth and Environment

JF - Communications Earth and Environment

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M1 - 147

ER -

Methane emissions decreased in fossil fuel exploitation and sustainably increased in microbial source sectors during 1990–2020

Abstract

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Funding

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