Meltwater from West Antarctic Ice Sheet Tipping Affects AMOC Resilience

Sacha Sinet; Anna von der Heydt; Henk Dijkstra

doi:10.1126/sciadv.adw3852

Meltwater from West Antarctic Ice Sheet Tipping Affects AMOC Resilience

Sacha Sinet^*, Anna von der Heydt, Henk Dijkstra

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC destabilization driven by Greenland ice sheet (GIS) meltwater release is well documented, the consequences of a West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) tipping on the AMOC remain unclear. In the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, we perform experiments where meltwater fluxes representing plausible tipping trajectories of the GIS and WAIS are applied. We find that WAIS meltwater input can increase or decrease the AMOC resilience to GIS meltwater. Also, we find that it can completely prevent an AMOC collapse, confirming in a comprehensive model what was previously found in conceptual frameworks. Moreover, we find this stabilization to occur for ice sheet tipping trajectories that are relevant under high future greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

Original language	English
Number of pages	9
Journal	Science advances
Volume	11
Issue number	46
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.adw3852
Publication status	Published - 14 Nov 2025

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Meltwater from West Antarctic ice sheet tipping affects AMOC resilienceFinal published version, 7.26 MBLicence: CC BY

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title = "Meltwater from West Antarctic Ice Sheet Tipping Affects AMOC Resilience",

abstract = "The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC destabilization driven by Greenland ice sheet (GIS) meltwater release is well documented, the consequences of a West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) tipping on the AMOC remain unclear. In the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, we perform experiments where meltwater fluxes representing plausible tipping trajectories of the GIS and WAIS are applied. We find that WAIS meltwater input can increase or decrease the AMOC resilience to GIS meltwater. Also, we find that it can completely prevent an AMOC collapse, confirming in a comprehensive model what was previously found in conceptual frameworks. Moreover, we find this stabilization to occur for ice sheet tipping trajectories that are relevant under high future greenhouse gas emission scenarios.",

author = "Sacha Sinet and \{von der Heydt\}, Anna and Henk Dijkstra",

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T1 - Meltwater from West Antarctic Ice Sheet Tipping Affects AMOC Resilience

AU - Sinet, Sacha

AU - von der Heydt, Anna

AU - Dijkstra, Henk

PY - 2025/11/14

Y1 - 2025/11/14

N2 - The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC destabilization driven by Greenland ice sheet (GIS) meltwater release is well documented, the consequences of a West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) tipping on the AMOC remain unclear. In the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, we perform experiments where meltwater fluxes representing plausible tipping trajectories of the GIS and WAIS are applied. We find that WAIS meltwater input can increase or decrease the AMOC resilience to GIS meltwater. Also, we find that it can completely prevent an AMOC collapse, confirming in a comprehensive model what was previously found in conceptual frameworks. Moreover, we find this stabilization to occur for ice sheet tipping trajectories that are relevant under high future greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

AB - The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC destabilization driven by Greenland ice sheet (GIS) meltwater release is well documented, the consequences of a West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) tipping on the AMOC remain unclear. In the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, we perform experiments where meltwater fluxes representing plausible tipping trajectories of the GIS and WAIS are applied. We find that WAIS meltwater input can increase or decrease the AMOC resilience to GIS meltwater. Also, we find that it can completely prevent an AMOC collapse, confirming in a comprehensive model what was previously found in conceptual frameworks. Moreover, we find this stabilization to occur for ice sheet tipping trajectories that are relevant under high future greenhouse gas emission scenarios.

U2 - 10.1126/sciadv.adw3852

DO - 10.1126/sciadv.adw3852

M3 - Article

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JO - Science advances

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ER -

Meltwater from West Antarctic Ice Sheet Tipping Affects AMOC Resilience

Abstract

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