Medium and long-term perspectives of international bioenergy trade

In the coming decades, huge challenges in the global energy system are expected. Scenarios indicate that bioenergy will play a substantial role in this process. However, up to now there is very limited insight regarding the implication this may have on bioenergy trade in the long term. The objectives of this chapter are: (1) to assess how bioenergy trade is included in different energy sector models and (2) to discuss the implications and perspectives of bioenergy trade in different energy scenarios. We grouped scenarios from the models IMAGE/TIMER, POLES and GFPM according to their policy targets and increase of bioenergy use in "ambitious" and "moderate" bioenergy scenarios and compared results regarding bioenergy trade for solid and liquid biomass. Trade balances for various world regions vary significantly in the different models and scenarios. Nevertheless, a few robust trends and results can be derived up to the year 2050: Russia and former USSR countries could turn into strong biomass exporting countries. Moreover, Canada, South-America, Central and Rest-Africa as well as Oceania could cover another substantial part of the bioenergy supply. As importing countries, India, Western Europe and China might play a key role. The results show (1) the high relevance of the topic, (2) the high uncertainties, (3) the need to better integrate social, ecological, economic and logistical barriers and restrictions into the models and (4) the need to better understand the potential role of bioenergy trade for a sustainable, low-carbon future energy system.