Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

René van Westen; Henk Dijkstra; Nadia Bloemendaal

doi:10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3

Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

René van Westen^*, Henk Dijkstra, Nadia Bloemendaal

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (-45%) in the North Atlantic but increases (+15%) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2269-2284
Number of pages	16
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume	61
Issue number	5-6
Early online date	22 Jan 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3
Publication status	Published - Sept 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors thank Michael Kliphuis (IMAU, UU) for performing the CESM simulations. All computations and analysis were performed on the Dutch Supercomputers Cartesius and Snellius at SURFsara in Amsterdam.

Funding Information:
All CESM computations were performed within NWO-SURF project 17239. R.M.v.W and H.A.D. are funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program for the ITN TiPES under Grant Agreement Number 643073. N.B. is funded by a VICI grant from the NWO (Grant Number 453-13-006) and the ERC Advanced Grant COASTMOVE no. 884442.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).

Keywords

AMOC weakening
Climate change
High-resolution modelling
Tropical cyclones

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1007/s00382-023-06680-3Licence: CC BY

s00382-023-06680-3Final published version, 34.5 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model",

abstract = "Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (-45%) in the North Atlantic but increases (+15%) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean{\textquoteright}s meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.",

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AB - Climate change induces a myriad of effects which influences the global tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency. Here we explore how North Atlantic and Western Pacific TCs are affected under climate change using a present-day and a future (1% pCO2 scenario) ensemble of high resolution simulations. We find that the number of TCs decreases (-45%) in the North Atlantic but increases (+15%) in the Western Pacific. Part of these opposing variations are linked to differences in the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, which gives rise to a different sea surface temperature response and air-sea fluxes between the two basins. The results show the important role of oceanic climate change on TC response.

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Mechanisms of tropical cyclone response under climate change in the community earth system model

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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