Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

E.J. Rohling; A. Sluijs; H.A. Dijkstra; R.S.W. van de Wal; A.S. von der Heydt; P.K. Bijl; R. Zeebe

doi:10.1038/nature11574

Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

E.J. Rohling, A. Sluijs, H.A. Dijkstra, R.S.W. van de Wal, A.S. von der Heydt, P.K. Bijl, R. Zeebe

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Abstract

Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climatechange.Over the past65millionyears, this reveals a climate sensitivity (inKW21m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at95%or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

Original language	English
Article number	11574
Pages (from-to)	683-691
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature
Volume	491
Issue number	7426
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/nature11574
Publication status	Published - 2012

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PALAEOSENS Project Members (35 auteurs, niet genoemd in PDF)

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title = "Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity",

abstract = "Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climatechange.Over the past65millionyears, this reveals a climate sensitivity (inKW21m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at95\%or 68\% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.",

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AU - Rohling, E.J.

AU - Sluijs, A.

AU - Dijkstra, H.A.

AU - van de Wal, R.S.W.

AU - von der Heydt, A.S.

AU - Bijl, P.K.

AU - Zeebe, R.

N1 - PALAEOSENS Project Members (35 auteurs, niet genoemd in PDF)

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Y1 - 2012

N2 - Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climatechange.Over the past65millionyears, this reveals a climate sensitivity (inKW21m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at95%or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

AB - Many palaeoclimate studies have quantified pre-anthropogenic climate change to calculate climate sensitivity (equilibrium temperature change in response to radiative forcing change), but a lack of consistent methodologies produces a wide range of estimates and hinders comparability of results. Here we present a stricter approach, to improve intercomparison of palaeoclimate sensitivity estimates in a manner compatible with equilibrium projections for future climatechange.Over the past65millionyears, this reveals a climate sensitivity (inKW21m2) of 0.3–1.9 or 0.6–1.3 at95%or 68% probability, respectively. The latter implies a warming of 2.2–4.8K per doubling of atmospheric CO2, which agrees with IPCC estimates.

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DO - 10.1038/nature11574

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C2 - 23192145

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VL - 491

SP - 683

EP - 691

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

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M1 - 11574

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Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity

Abstract

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