Abstract
A methodology is presented here to assess the potential long-term contribution of non-CO2greenhouse gases in mitigation scenarios. The analysis shows the future development of the mitigation potential of non-CO2gases (as a function of changes in technology and implementation barriers) to represent a crucial parameter for the overall costs of mitigation scenarios. The recently developed marginal abatement cost curves for 2010 in the EMF-21 project are taken as the starting point. First-order estimates were made of the future maximum attainable reduction potentials and costs on the basis of available literature. The set of MAC curves developed was used in a multi-gas analysis for stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 ppm CO2-equivalent. Including future development for the non-CO2mitigation options not only increases their mitigation potential but also lowers the overall costs compared to situations where no development is assumed (3-21% lower in 2050 and 4-26% lower in 2100 in our analysis). Along with the fluorinated gases, energy-related methane emissions make up the largest share in total non-CO2abatement potential as they represent a large emission source and have a large potential for reduction (towards 90% compared to baseline in 2100). Most methane and nitrous oxide emissions from landuse-related sources are less simple to abate, with an estimated abatement potential in 2100 of around 60% and 40%, respectively. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 85-103 |
Number of pages | 19 |
Journal | Environmental Science & Policy |
Volume | 10 |
Issue number | 2 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Apr 2007 |
Keywords
- Abatement potential
- Mitigation scenarios
- Non-CO2
- Technology development
- carbon dioxide
- fertilizer
- fluorinated hydrocarbon
- fluorocarbon
- methane
- nitrous oxide
- sulfur hexafluoride
- agricultural waste
- air pollution control
- article
- coal mining
- controlled study
- cost benefit analysis
- domestic waste
- energy
- fermentation
- gas analysis
- greenhouse effect
- greenhouse gas
- industrial waste
- land use
- long term care
- priority journal
- rice
- sewage
- waste water