Long-term reduction potential of non-CO2greenhouse gases

Paul L. Lucas, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jos G.J. Olivier, Michel G.J. den Elzen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

A methodology is presented here to assess the potential long-term contribution of non-CO2greenhouse gases in mitigation scenarios. The analysis shows the future development of the mitigation potential of non-CO2gases (as a function of changes in technology and implementation barriers) to represent a crucial parameter for the overall costs of mitigation scenarios. The recently developed marginal abatement cost curves for 2010 in the EMF-21 project are taken as the starting point. First-order estimates were made of the future maximum attainable reduction potentials and costs on the basis of available literature. The set of MAC curves developed was used in a multi-gas analysis for stabilising greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 ppm CO2-equivalent. Including future development for the non-CO2mitigation options not only increases their mitigation potential but also lowers the overall costs compared to situations where no development is assumed (3-21% lower in 2050 and 4-26% lower in 2100 in our analysis). Along with the fluorinated gases, energy-related methane emissions make up the largest share in total non-CO2abatement potential as they represent a large emission source and have a large potential for reduction (towards 90% compared to baseline in 2100). Most methane and nitrous oxide emissions from landuse-related sources are less simple to abate, with an estimated abatement potential in 2100 of around 60% and 40%, respectively. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)85-103
Number of pages19
JournalEnvironmental Science & Policy
Volume10
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Apr 2007

Keywords

  • Abatement potential
  • Mitigation scenarios
  • Non-CO2
  • Technology development
  • carbon dioxide
  • fertilizer
  • fluorinated hydrocarbon
  • fluorocarbon
  • methane
  • nitrous oxide
  • sulfur hexafluoride
  • agricultural waste
  • air pollution control
  • article
  • coal mining
  • controlled study
  • cost benefit analysis
  • domestic waste
  • energy
  • fermentation
  • gas analysis
  • greenhouse effect
  • greenhouse gas
  • industrial waste
  • land use
  • long term care
  • priority journal
  • rice
  • sewage
  • waste water

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