Long-term PTSD Course and Associated Predictors: A 12-15 year Prospective Longitudinal Study in Adults with Suspected Serious Injury

Background: Investigating long-term posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) course and its predictors may guide prevention and early intervention strategies following trauma exposure, potentially reducing the long-lasting impact of trauma. Method: N = 155 emergency-admitted adults with (suspected) serious injury were repeatedly assessed until one-year post-trauma and completed a 12-15 year follow-up including a clinical PTSD interview. Results: Adverse one-year PTSD trajectories; more exposure to additional potentially traumatic events and recent life stressors; and early post-trauma predictors (younger age, self-perceived post- traumatic amnesia, more prior potentially traumatic events, higher heart rate) were significantly associated with higher PTSD symptom severity 12-15 years post-trauma. Conclusions: This study showed high consistency between one-year PTSD and its early post-trauma predictors with long-term PTSD outcomes. Early post-trauma predictors had predictive value up to 12-15 years. This suggests that early risk identification of one-year PTSD and subsequent effective early interventions also hold long-term beneficial effects for PTSD outcome. Keywords: Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD); trauma; injury; longitudinal; prospective