Location and accessibility mediated influences on office firm closure rates: A proportional hazard model

This paper addresses an exploratory study about the mediated influence of a set of location and accessibility attributes along with firm types and the effect on office firm closures. We use a proportional hazard modeling approach, examining the probability that an office firm will go out of business in any given year, conditional on the fact that it did not go out of business in the years prior. Variables include urbanization levels and regional effects; accessibility to airports, train stations, shopping centers and the roadway network; availability of parking facilities and schools; demographic and economic aspects; effects of agglomeration economies; rent price; and the type of economic activity of the office firm. Most of them presented significant information to assist in the explanation of the firm closure. Also, interaction effects between covariates and firm types brought a better understanding about the firm closure patterns in relation to urban characteristics. Assessing firm closures is an element of a firm demographic approach and overall dynamics. In turn, this is part of a multi-agent system to simulate the co-evolution of firm dynamics and changes in activity-travel patterns.