Linking Historic Developments and Future Scenarios of Industrial Energy Use in the Netherlands between 1993 and 2040

Monitoring energy efficiency improvements
is essential for policy evaluation and for future
policy making. We estimate the annual energy efficiency
improvements achieved in six Dutch industry
sectors between 1993 and 2008 by using a bottom-up
model. This model incorporates the production data
and specific energy consumption values of 122 products.
We estimate annual energy efficiency improvements
of 1.0 % per annum (p.a.) for the total industry
(excluding non-energy use); even though the results
are subject to uncertainties due to errors in the energy
statistics, we consider them as strong indication that
Dutch industry needs to reinforce its efforts in energy
efficiency. Based on historical achievements between
1989 and 2008, Business as Usual (BaU) scenarios
project annual improvement potentials of 0.6–1.8 %
p.a. until 2040. Based on literature review, this study
estimates that implementing energy saving technologies
can accelerate energy efficiency improvements to
2 % p.a. and beyond. Efficient combined heat and
power technologies could increase these potentials
further. These are beyond the historical achievements
and BaU scenario projections. New policies will be
required for technology development which ensures
continuous energy efficiency improvements. The findings
of this paper need to be extended by continuous
monitoring and more scenario analyses with improved
data.