Lignocellulosic biomass for chemicals and energy: An integrated assessment of future EU market sizes, feedstock availability impacts, synergy and competition effects, and path dependencies.

Lignocellulosic biomass is expected to play an important role in decarbonizing our economy. In this modeling study, we assessed the future role of biobased chemicals and energy from this resource in the EU up to 2030. The study's general outcomes indicate that biobased heat remains the largest biobased sector over this period, and biobased chemicals remain the smallest. A significant share of EU‐domestic lignocellulosic biomass potential remains unutilized, even when feedstock availability is restricted. The technology mix for biobased heat, power, biofuels, and chemicals remains relatively stable in all cases, with a strong role for biobased combined heat and power (CHP). Several specific ‘what if’ analyses were done. These show that both restriction of feedstock potential and active mobilization of available potential affect overall costs of biobased options, illustrating the relevance of specific policies in bringing biomass potentials to the market. In feedstock‐restricted scenarios, specific attention to advanced lignocellulose‐based fuel technologies is essential to meet biofuel ambitions. Another analysis indicates that both competition and synergy effects occur between energy and chemical applications of biomass. This illustrates that biorefining and co‐production of biobased chemicals and energy in integrated biorefineries is a better and more robust business than separated production. Finally, an analysis of the dynamics between lignocellulosic and crop‐based biofuels reveals that the current capacity of the latter creates a need for a specific subtarget for lignocellulose‐based biofuels before they can enter the market, and that crop‐based biofuels may be gradually phased out, but with significant additional costs.