Learning in dedicated wood production systems: Past trends, future outlook and implications for bioenergy

This paper assesses the learning potential of dedicated wood production systems to boost yields and
reduce production costs. In particular, the paper analyses past trends and provides a future outlook of
developments in dedicated wood production for three cases: eucalyptus production in Brazil, poplar
production in Italy and willow production in Sweden. A main objective of this paper is to evaluate
the extent to which experience curves can be devised for conventional woody plantation systems, and
whether these can also be applied to short rotation cropping (SRC) production systems. For current
average SRC production systems, Italian poplar shows the highest cost at 5.5 h GJ1 followed by
Swedish willow at 4.4 h GJ1 and Brazilian eucalyptus is produced to the lowest costs at 2.8 h GJ1
. It
was assessed to what extent production costs can be reduced per step in the production cycle and how
this affects the minimum cost levels that can ultimately be achieved. Ultimate cost reduction could lead
to delivered costs of 2.2 h GJ1 for poplar, 1.9 h GJ1 for willow and 1.9 h GJ1 for eucalyptus on better
quality lands. Based on historic cost data and production trends, experience curves were applied
providing progress ratios for poplar in Italy and eucalyptus in Brazil. Brazilian eucalyptus production
follows a steeper slope (63–73%) than poplar in Italy (71–78%). The extent to, and rate at, which cost
reductions can occur within the next 20 years were evaluated by combining current costs, minimum
cost levels and progress ratios with ranges in European and global biomass demand projections. This
shows that, at the assumed growth rates for biomass production in Europe and for global production,
minimum cost levels can be reached within the next two decades for all cases.