Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security

Shinichiro Fujimori; Wenchao Wu; Jonathan Doelman; Stefan Frank; Jordan Hristov; Page Kyle; Ronald Sands; Willem Jan van Zeist; Petr Havlik; Ignacio Pérez Domínguez; Amarendra Sahoo; Elke Stehfest; Andrzej Tabeau; Hugo Valin; Hans van Meijl; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi

doi:10.1038/s43016-022-00464-4

Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security

Shinichiro Fujimori^*, Wenchao Wu, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Jordan Hristov, Page Kyle, Ronald Sands, Willem Jan van Zeist, Petr Havlik, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, Amarendra Sahoo, Elke Stehfest, Andrzej Tabeau, Hugo Valin, Hans van Meijl, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kiyoshi Takahashi

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases—but without distinguishing these strategies’ individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO₂ emissions reduction, bioenergy production and afforestation—may change food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 °C climate-stabilization scenarios. Results show that afforestation (often simulated in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks) could have a large impact on food security relative to non-CO₂ emissions policies (generally implemented as emissions taxes). Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 million and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050 compared with the current trend scenario baseline. This highlights the need for better coordination in emissions reduction and agricultural market management policies as well as better representation of land use and associated greenhouse gas emissions in modelling.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	110-121
Journal	Nature Food
Volume	3
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00464-4
Publication status	Published - Feb 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
S. Fujimori, W.W., T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. S. Fujimori, T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Sumitomo Foundation. W.W. was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant no. JP20K20031). H.v.M., A.T. and W.-J.v.Z. received funding from the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security through the Wageningen University Knowledge Base programme (Circular and Climate Neutral Society, KB-34-003-001 Integrated toolbox for cross-sectoral forward looking assessments and scenarios). S. Frank, P.H. and H.V. received funding from the European Union’s H2020 ENGAGE (grant no. 821471) and NAVIGATE (grant no. 821124). This research was supported by the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture.

Funding Information:
S. Fujimori, W.W., T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. S. Fujimori, T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Sumitomo Foundation. W.W. was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant no. JP20K20031). H.v.M., A.T. and W.-J.v.Z. received funding from the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security through the Wageningen University Knowledge Base programme (Circular and Climate Neutral Society, KB-34-003-001 Integrated toolbox for cross-sectoral forward looking assessments and scenarios). S. Frank, P.H. and H.V. received funding from the European Union?s H2020 ENGAGE (grant no. 821471) and NAVIGATE (grant no. 821124). This research was supported by the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

Funding

S. Fujimori, W.W., T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. S. Fujimori, T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Sumitomo Foundation. W.W. was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant no. JP20K20031). H.v.M., A.T. and W.-J.v.Z. received funding from the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security through the Wageningen University Knowledge Base programme (Circular and Climate Neutral Society, KB-34-003-001 Integrated toolbox for cross-sectoral forward looking assessments and scenarios). S. Frank, P.H. and H.V. received funding from the European Union’s H2020 ENGAGE (grant no. 821471) and NAVIGATE (grant no. 821124). This research was supported by the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture. S. Fujimori, W.W., T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. S. Fujimori, T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Sumitomo Foundation. W.W. was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant no. JP20K20031). H.v.M., A.T. and W.-J.v.Z. received funding from the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security through the Wageningen University Knowledge Base programme (Circular and Climate Neutral Society, KB-34-003-001 Integrated toolbox for cross-sectoral forward looking assessments and scenarios). S. Frank, P.H. and H.V. received funding from the European Union?s H2020 ENGAGE (grant no. 821471) and NAVIGATE (grant no. 821124). This research was supported by the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture.

Keywords

Climate change mitigation
environmental economics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s43016-022-00464-4

s43016-022-00464-4Final published version, 1.69 MBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

Fujimori, S., Wu, W., Doelman, J., Frank, S., Hristov, J., Kyle, P., Sands, R., van Zeist, W. J., Havlik, P., Domínguez, I. P., Sahoo, A., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van Meijl, H., Hasegawa, T., & Takahashi, K. (2022). Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security. Nature Food, 3(2), 110-121. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00464-4

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abstract = "Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases—but without distinguishing these strategies{\textquoteright} individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions reduction, bioenergy production and afforestation—may change food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 °C climate-stabilization scenarios. Results show that afforestation (often simulated in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks) could have a large impact on food security relative to non-CO2 emissions policies (generally implemented as emissions taxes). Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 million and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050 compared with the current trend scenario baseline. This highlights the need for better coordination in emissions reduction and agricultural market management policies as well as better representation of land use and associated greenhouse gas emissions in modelling.",

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author = "Shinichiro Fujimori and Wenchao Wu and Jonathan Doelman and Stefan Frank and Jordan Hristov and Page Kyle and Ronald Sands and {van Zeist}, {Willem Jan} and Petr Havlik and Dom{\'i}nguez, {Ignacio P{\'e}rez} and Amarendra Sahoo and Elke Stehfest and Andrzej Tabeau and Hugo Valin and {van Meijl}, Hans and Tomoko Hasegawa and Kiyoshi Takahashi",

note = "Funding Information: S. Fujimori, W.W., T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. S. Fujimori, T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Sumitomo Foundation. W.W. was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant no. JP20K20031). H.v.M., A.T. and W.-J.v.Z. received funding from the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security through the Wageningen University Knowledge Base programme (Circular and Climate Neutral Society, KB-34-003-001 Integrated toolbox for cross-sectoral forward looking assessments and scenarios). S. Frank, P.H. and H.V. received funding from the European Union{\textquoteright}s H2020 ENGAGE (grant no. 821471) and NAVIGATE (grant no. 821124). This research was supported by the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture. Funding Information: S. Fujimori, W.W., T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202002) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan. S. Fujimori, T.H. and K.T. are supported by the Sumitomo Foundation. W.W. was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant no. JP20K20031). H.v.M., A.T. and W.-J.v.Z. received funding from the Dutch Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Security through the Wageningen University Knowledge Base programme (Circular and Climate Neutral Society, KB-34-003-001 Integrated toolbox for cross-sectoral forward looking assessments and scenarios). S. Frank, P.H. and H.V. received funding from the European Union?s H2020 ENGAGE (grant no. 821471) and NAVIGATE (grant no. 821124). This research was supported by the Economic Research Service of the US Department of Agriculture. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.",

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Fujimori, S, Wu, W, Doelman, J, Frank, S, Hristov, J, Kyle, P, Sands, R, van Zeist, WJ, Havlik, P, Domínguez, IP, Sahoo, A, Stehfest, E, Tabeau, A, Valin, H, van Meijl, H, Hasegawa, T & Takahashi, K 2022, 'Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security', Nature Food, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 110-121. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00464-4

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AU - Kyle, Page

AU - Sands, Ronald

AU - van Zeist, Willem Jan

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AU - Domínguez, Ignacio Pérez

AU - Sahoo, Amarendra

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N2 - Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases—but without distinguishing these strategies’ individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions reduction, bioenergy production and afforestation—may change food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 °C climate-stabilization scenarios. Results show that afforestation (often simulated in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks) could have a large impact on food security relative to non-CO2 emissions policies (generally implemented as emissions taxes). Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 million and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050 compared with the current trend scenario baseline. This highlights the need for better coordination in emissions reduction and agricultural market management policies as well as better representation of land use and associated greenhouse gas emissions in modelling.

AB - Earlier studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation strategies on food security, particularly due to food price increases—but without distinguishing these strategies’ individual effects under different conditions. Using six global agroeconomic models, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions reduction, bioenergy production and afforestation—may change food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 °C climate-stabilization scenarios. Results show that afforestation (often simulated in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks) could have a large impact on food security relative to non-CO2 emissions policies (generally implemented as emissions taxes). Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 million and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050 compared with the current trend scenario baseline. This highlights the need for better coordination in emissions reduction and agricultural market management policies as well as better representation of land use and associated greenhouse gas emissions in modelling.

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Land-based climate change mitigation measures can affect agricultural markets and food security

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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