Is anticipatory governance opening up or closing down future possibilities? Findings from diverse contexts in the Global South

Karlijn Muiderman*, Joost Vervoort, Aarti Gupta, Rathana Peou Norbert-Munns, Marieke Veeger, Maliha Muzammil, Peter Driessen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

There is an urgent need to understand how anticipation processes such as scenario planning impact governance choices in the present. However, little empirical research has been done to analyze how anticipation processes frame possibilities for action. This paper investigates how assumptions about the future open up or close down anticipatory governance actions in a large number of climate-focused anticipation processes. We focused on four Global South regions: West Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Central America. We apply an analytical framework that identifies four diverse approaches to anticipatory governance and connect this to the notion of opening up or closing down of possibility spaces for action. Across the four regions, we find that many anticipation processes open up dialogue about deep uncertainties and pluralistic worldviews but end up informing mostly technocratic and linear planning actions in the present. We also observe that anticipation processes in the Central American context more often break this trend, particularly when transformative ambitions are formulated. The focus on more technocratic futures and linear planning strategies and reliance on a mostly North-based global futures industry may close down more culturally, socially and politically diverse and regionally relevant future worldviews in anticipation processes.
Original languageEnglish
Article number102694
Number of pages19
JournalGlobal Environmental Change
Volume81
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2023

Keywords

  • Anticipatory governance
  • Anticipation
  • Climate policy
  • Global South
  • Futures

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