Intraseasonal atmospheric variability under climate trends

Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a conceptual model of the mid-latitudes’ atmospheric circulation from the perspective of nonautonomous dynamical systems. First, a bifurcation analysis is carried out under time-independent forcing in order to identify different types of behavior in the autonomous model’s parameter space. Next, we focus on the study of the nonautonomous system in which the cross-latitudinal heat flux varies seasonally, according to insolation changes. The forward attractor of the seasonally forced model is compared with the attractor of the autonomous one. The seasonal forcing results in a clear change of the attractor’s shape. The summer attractor loses its periodicity, and, hence, predictability, when the forcing is seasonal, while the winter attractor favors energy transport through one of the model’s two wave components. Climate change forcing produces several remarkable effects. Thus, the analysis of the model’s forward attractor under climate trends suggests that the jet speed does not always follow the sign of the change in equator-to-pole thermal contrast, while the change in the energy transported by the eddies does. Chaotic behavior can be completely suppressed in favor of a regular periodic one and vice versa. Circulation patterns can change, suddenly disappear, and rebuild. The model’s forward attractor in the presence of time-dependent forcing proves to be a robust tool to study model changes in internal variability due to climate trends, both positive and negative.