Abstract
The decarbonization of shipping has become an important policy goal. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for emissions of around 0.7 GtCO2 yr−1. Here we perform a multi-IAM analysis of international shipping and show the potential for decreasing annual emissions in the next decades, with reductions of up to 86% by 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonization of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes for conventional maritime fuels. While our results align with the 2018 emission reduction goal of the International Maritime Organization, their compatibility with the agency’s revised target is still subject to a more definitive interpretation.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 600-607 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Journal | Nature Climate Change |
Volume | 14 |
Issue number | 6 |
Early online date | 22 May 2024 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 22 May 2024 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2024.
Funding
E.M.-C., F.L., M.v.d.B., P.F., O.D., H.N., R.D., T.L.G., I.S.T., I.T., J.E., L.B.B., D.P.v.V., A.G., L.D., J.P.-P., H.-S.d.B., N.T., P.R.R.R., A.S. and R.S. received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 821124 (NAVIGATE) and 821471 (ENGAGE). E.M.-C., R.D., L.B.B., A.S. and R.S. were also supported by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). F.L. has benefited from the support of the long-term modelling chair for sustainable development (Ponts ParisTech-Mines ParisTech) funded by ADEME, GRTgaz, Schneider Electric, EDF and the French Ministry of Environment. P.F. also received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 101003866 (NDC-ASPECTS).
Funders | Funder number |
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EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020) | 101003866 |
European Union | |
Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) - ADEME | |
GRTgaz, Schneider Electric, EDF | |
French Ministry of Environment |
Keywords
- climate-chsnge mitigation
- energy modelling
- energy supply and demand