International shipping in a world below 2 °C

Eduardo Müller-Casseres, Florian Leblanc, Maarten van den Berg, Panagiotis Fragkos, Olivier Dessens, Hesam Naghash, Rebecca Draeger, Thomas Le Gallic, Isabela S. Tagomori, Ioannis Tsiropoulos, Johannes Emmerling, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Anastasis Giannousakis, Laurent Drouet, Joana Portugal-Pereira, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Nikolaos Tsanakas, Pedro R.R. Rochedo, Alexandre SzkloRoberto Schaeffer*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

The decarbonization of shipping has become an important policy goal. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for emissions of around 0.7 GtCO2 yr−1. Here we perform a multi-IAM analysis of international shipping and show the potential for decreasing annual emissions in the next decades, with reductions of up to 86% by 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonization of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes for conventional maritime fuels. While our results align with the 2018 emission reduction goal of the International Maritime Organization, their compatibility with the agency’s revised target is still subject to a more definitive interpretation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)600-607
Number of pages8
JournalNature Climate Change
Volume14
Issue number6
Early online date22 May 2024
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 22 May 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2024.

Funding

E.M.-C., F.L., M.v.d.B., P.F., O.D., H.N., R.D., T.L.G., I.S.T., I.T., J.E., L.B.B., D.P.v.V., A.G., L.D., J.P.-P., H.-S.d.B., N.T., P.R.R.R., A.S. and R.S. received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreements 821124 (NAVIGATE) and 821471 (ENGAGE). E.M.-C., R.D., L.B.B., A.S. and R.S. were also supported by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). F.L. has benefited from the support of the long-term modelling chair for sustainable development (Ponts ParisTech-Mines ParisTech) funded by ADEME, GRTgaz, Schneider Electric, EDF and the French Ministry of Environment. P.F. also received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement 101003866 (NDC-ASPECTS).

FundersFunder number
EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation H2020)101003866
European Union
Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) - ADEME
GRTgaz, Schneider Electric, EDF
French Ministry of Environment

    Keywords

    • climate-chsnge mitigation
    • energy modelling
    • energy supply and demand

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