International bioenergy trade - a review of past developments in the liquid biofuels market

Policies aimed to promote biofuels locally had tremendous effects on global market developments across the past decade. This article develops insights into the interaction of these policies and market forces via a comprehensive collection and analysis of international production and trade data. It shows that world biofuel production and trade has grown exponentially: from below 30 PJ in 2000 to 572 PJ in 2009 for biodiesel; from 340 PJ in 2000 to over 1540 PJ in 2009 for fuel ethanol. The EU has dominated world biodiesel, whereas the US and Brazil have led fuel ethanol production. World net biofuel trade reached 120–130 PJ in 2009 and was directed towards the most lucrative markets. For biodiesel, this has been the EU whose imports rose to 92 PJ in 2008 and remained at 70 PJ in 2009. Regarding fuel ethanol, both the US and the EU have been prime destinations for competitively priced exports, the vast majority of which originated in Brazil. International biofuel trade is both supply and demand driven. The demand side was shaped by support policies which generally increased the domestic market value of biofuels. Trade developed wherever these policies/prices were not accompanied by respective measures. It is found that import duties largely influenced trade volumes, whereas trade routes were mainly driven by tariff preferences. Trade regimes appear to have been designed and adapted unilaterally along national interests causing market disruptions, trade inefficiencies and disputes. To avoid these, it is important to explicitly consider international trade implications of national trade policies. A prerequisite is to improve the understanding of the underlying, complex and interwoven links within the market. The current lack of adequate, homogeneous, international reporting of biofuel production and trade statistics could be bridged via internationally standardized custom clarifications. Trade factor interrelations also need to be investigated further.