Interevent-time distribution and aftershock frequency in non-stationary induced seismicity

R.A.J. Post; M.A.J. Michels; Jean-Paul Ampuero; T. Candela; P.A. Fokker; J.-D. van Wees; R.W. Hofstad; E.R. Heuvel

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-82803-2

Interevent-time distribution and aftershock frequency in non-stationary induced seismicity

R.A.J. Post
, M.A.J. Michels
, Jean-Paul Ampuero
, T. Candela
, P.A. Fokker
, J.-D. van Wees
, R.W. Hofstad
, E.R. Heuvel

TNO - Geological Survey of the Netherlands

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The initial footprint of an earthquake can be extended considerably by triggering of clustered aftershocks. Such earthquake–earthquake interactions have been studied extensively for data-rich, stationary natural seismicity. Induced seismicity, however, is intrinsically inhomogeneous in time and space and may have a limited catalog of events; this may hamper the distinction between human-induced background events and triggered aftershocks. Here we introduce a novel Gamma Accelerated-Failure-Time model for efficiently analyzing interevent-time distributions in such cases. It addresses the spatiotemporal variation and quantifies, per event, the probability of each event to have been triggered. Distentangling the obscuring aftershocks from the background events is a crucial step to better understand the causal relationship between operational parameters and non-stationary induced seismicity. Applied to the Groningen gas field in the North of the Netherlands, our model elucidates geological and operational drivers of seismicity and has been used to test for aftershock triggering. We find that the hazard rate in Groningen is indeed enhanced after each event and conclude that aftershock triggering cannot be ignored. In particular we find that the non-stationary interevent-time distribution is well described by our Gamma model. This model suggests that 27.0(± 8.5)% of the recorded events in the Groningen field can be attributed to triggering.

Original language	English
Article number	3540
Number of pages	10
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	11
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-82803-2
Publication status	Published - 11 Feb 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank the NAM for data on the faults and reservoir in the Groningen gas field, Shell for the compaction data and the KNMI for the publicly available earthquake catalog. We thank J.N. Breunese (TNO), D.A. Kraaijpoel (TNO), S. Osinga (TNO), Y. Raaijmakers (TU/e), Z. Zhan (TU/e) and G.A.O. Cremers (TU/e) for fruitful discussions. The work of R.W. van der Hofstad is supported by The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) through VICI Grant 639.033.806 and the Gravitation Networks Grant 024.002.003. J.-P.A. was supported by the French Government through the UCAJEDI Investments in the Future project managed by the National Research Agency (Grant ANR-15-IDEX-01).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).

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title = "Interevent-time distribution and aftershock frequency in non-stationary induced seismicity",

abstract = "The initial footprint of an earthquake can be extended considerably by triggering of clustered aftershocks. Such earthquake–earthquake interactions have been studied extensively for data-rich, stationary natural seismicity. Induced seismicity, however, is intrinsically inhomogeneous in time and space and may have a limited catalog of events; this may hamper the distinction between human-induced background events and triggered aftershocks. Here we introduce a novel Gamma Accelerated-Failure-Time model for efficiently analyzing interevent-time distributions in such cases. It addresses the spatiotemporal variation and quantifies, per event, the probability of each event to have been triggered. Distentangling the obscuring aftershocks from the background events is a crucial step to better understand the causal relationship between operational parameters and non-stationary induced seismicity. Applied to the Groningen gas field in the North of the Netherlands, our model elucidates geological and operational drivers of seismicity and has been used to test for aftershock triggering. We find that the hazard rate in Groningen is indeed enhanced after each event and conclude that aftershock triggering cannot be ignored. In particular we find that the non-stationary interevent-time distribution is well described by our Gamma model. This model suggests that 27.0(± 8.5)\% of the recorded events in the Groningen field can be attributed to triggering.",

author = "R.A.J. Post and M.A.J. Michels and Jean-Paul Ampuero and T. Candela and P.A. Fokker and \{van Wees\}, J.-D. and R.W. Hofstad and E.R. Heuvel",

note = "Funding Information: We thank the NAM for data on the faults and reservoir in the Groningen gas field, Shell for the compaction data and the KNMI for the publicly available earthquake catalog. We thank J.N. Breunese (TNO), D.A. Kraaijpoel (TNO), S. Osinga (TNO), Y. Raaijmakers (TU/e), Z. Zhan (TU/e) and G.A.O. Cremers (TU/e) for fruitful discussions. The work of R.W. van der Hofstad is supported by The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) through VICI Grant 639.033.806 and the Gravitation Networks Grant 024.002.003. J.-P.A. was supported by the French Government through the UCAJEDI Investments in the Future project managed by the National Research Agency (Grant ANR-15-IDEX-01). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021, The Author(s).",

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doi = "10.1038/s41598-021-82803-2",

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AU - Post, R.A.J.

AU - Michels, M.A.J.

AU - Ampuero, Jean-Paul

AU - Candela, T.

AU - Fokker, P.A.

AU - van Wees, J.-D.

AU - Hofstad, R.W.

AU - Heuvel, E.R.

N1 - Funding Information: We thank the NAM for data on the faults and reservoir in the Groningen gas field, Shell for the compaction data and the KNMI for the publicly available earthquake catalog. We thank J.N. Breunese (TNO), D.A. Kraaijpoel (TNO), S. Osinga (TNO), Y. Raaijmakers (TU/e), Z. Zhan (TU/e) and G.A.O. Cremers (TU/e) for fruitful discussions. The work of R.W. van der Hofstad is supported by The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) through VICI Grant 639.033.806 and the Gravitation Networks Grant 024.002.003. J.-P.A. was supported by the French Government through the UCAJEDI Investments in the Future project managed by the National Research Agency (Grant ANR-15-IDEX-01). Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).

PY - 2021/2/11

Y1 - 2021/2/11

N2 - The initial footprint of an earthquake can be extended considerably by triggering of clustered aftershocks. Such earthquake–earthquake interactions have been studied extensively for data-rich, stationary natural seismicity. Induced seismicity, however, is intrinsically inhomogeneous in time and space and may have a limited catalog of events; this may hamper the distinction between human-induced background events and triggered aftershocks. Here we introduce a novel Gamma Accelerated-Failure-Time model for efficiently analyzing interevent-time distributions in such cases. It addresses the spatiotemporal variation and quantifies, per event, the probability of each event to have been triggered. Distentangling the obscuring aftershocks from the background events is a crucial step to better understand the causal relationship between operational parameters and non-stationary induced seismicity. Applied to the Groningen gas field in the North of the Netherlands, our model elucidates geological and operational drivers of seismicity and has been used to test for aftershock triggering. We find that the hazard rate in Groningen is indeed enhanced after each event and conclude that aftershock triggering cannot be ignored. In particular we find that the non-stationary interevent-time distribution is well described by our Gamma model. This model suggests that 27.0(± 8.5)% of the recorded events in the Groningen field can be attributed to triggering.

AB - The initial footprint of an earthquake can be extended considerably by triggering of clustered aftershocks. Such earthquake–earthquake interactions have been studied extensively for data-rich, stationary natural seismicity. Induced seismicity, however, is intrinsically inhomogeneous in time and space and may have a limited catalog of events; this may hamper the distinction between human-induced background events and triggered aftershocks. Here we introduce a novel Gamma Accelerated-Failure-Time model for efficiently analyzing interevent-time distributions in such cases. It addresses the spatiotemporal variation and quantifies, per event, the probability of each event to have been triggered. Distentangling the obscuring aftershocks from the background events is a crucial step to better understand the causal relationship between operational parameters and non-stationary induced seismicity. Applied to the Groningen gas field in the North of the Netherlands, our model elucidates geological and operational drivers of seismicity and has been used to test for aftershock triggering. We find that the hazard rate in Groningen is indeed enhanced after each event and conclude that aftershock triggering cannot be ignored. In particular we find that the non-stationary interevent-time distribution is well described by our Gamma model. This model suggests that 27.0(± 8.5)% of the recorded events in the Groningen field can be attributed to triggering.

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85101098870

U2 - 10.1038/s41598-021-82803-2

DO - 10.1038/s41598-021-82803-2

M3 - Article

SN - 2045-2322

VL - 11

JO - Scientific Reports

JF - Scientific Reports

IS - 1

M1 - 3540

ER -

Interevent-time distribution and aftershock frequency in non-stationary induced seismicity

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