Intensification of ENSO frequency drives forest disturbance in the Andes during the Holocene

K. Hagemans; D. H. Urrego; W. D. Gosling; D. T. Rodbell; F. Wagner-Cremer; T. H. Donders

doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107762

Intensification of ENSO frequency drives forest disturbance in the Andes during the Holocene

K. Hagemans
, D. H. Urrego
, W. D. Gosling
, D. T. Rodbell
, F. Wagner-Cremer
, T. H. Donders^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Coastal dynamics, Fluvial systems and Global change

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The biodiverse montane forests of the tropical Andes are today frequently disturbed by rainfall-driven mass movements which occur mostly during extreme El Niño events. Over the coming decades these events are projected to double under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The consequent increased rainfall and mass movement events likely present an elevated risk to millions of people living in the Andes. However, the impact of more frequent rainfall extremes remains unclear due to a lack of studies that directly link past changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency to forest and landscape disturbance patterns. Here, we present the first Holocene palaeoecological record from Laguna Pallcacocha, southern Ecuador, a key site for El Niño reconstructions. We demonstrate that for the past 10,000 years plant taxa indicative of recolonization – such as Alnus acuminata – covary with El Niño-induced flood layers in the lake. An amplified forest disturbance pattern is observed in the late Holocene, suggesting enhanced slope instability following deforestation. The temporal pattern is not explained by tree line fluctuations or human impact, while the latter does amplify the impact of ENSO on landscape disturbance. Spatial correlations between modern ENSO and precipitation are consistent with a regional comparison of Holocene records of landscape disturbance. Our results indicate that climate extremes, such as those associated with future intensification of El Niño, combined with ongoing land use change will increase the frequency of mass movements elevating risks for millions of people in the Andes.

Original language	English
Article number	107762
Pages (from-to)	1-9
Number of pages	9
Journal	Quaternary Science Reviews
Volume	294
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107762
Publication status	Published - 15 Oct 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This research was funded by the Earth and Life Science council (ALW) of the Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research (NWO) (grant number 824.14.018). Our thanks also go the Ministry of Environment of Ecuador (MAE) for providing research and fieldwork permissions (permit number 009_SGA_2015_PNC_BD_VA_Donders). We thank W.R. Plugge for contributing to the charcoal analyses. We thank C.N.H. McMichael for advise on data analyses and H. Hooghiemstra and two anonymous reviewers for manuscript improvements and suggestion for additional sites. The work of data contributors, data stewards, and the Neotoma community and constituent Latin American Pollen Database is gratefully acknowledged.

Funding Information:
This research was funded by the Earth and Life Science council (ALW) of the Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research ( NWO ) (grant number 824.14.018 ). Our thanks also go the Ministry of Environment of Ecuador (MAE) for providing research and fieldwork permissions (permit number 009_SGA_2015_PNC_BD_VA_Donders). We thank W.R. Plugge for contributing to the charcoal analyses. We thank C.N.H. McMichael for advise on data analyses and H. Hooghiemstra and two anonymous reviewers for manuscript improvements and suggestion for additional sites. The work of data contributors, data stewards, and the Neotoma community and constituent Latin American Pollen Database is gratefully acknowledged.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Authors

Funding

This research was funded by the Earth and Life Science council (ALW) of the Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research (NWO) (grant number 824.14.018). Our thanks also go the Ministry of Environment of Ecuador (MAE) for providing research and fieldwork permissions (permit number 009_SGA_2015_PNC_BD_VA_Donders). We thank W.R. Plugge for contributing to the charcoal analyses. We thank C.N.H. McMichael for advise on data analyses and H. Hooghiemstra and two anonymous reviewers for manuscript improvements and suggestion for additional sites. The work of data contributors, data stewards, and the Neotoma community and constituent Latin American Pollen Database is gratefully acknowledged. This research was funded by the Earth and Life Science council (ALW) of the Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research ( NWO ) (grant number 824.14.018 ). Our thanks also go the Ministry of Environment of Ecuador (MAE) for providing research and fieldwork permissions (permit number 009_SGA_2015_PNC_BD_VA_Donders). We thank W.R. Plugge for contributing to the charcoal analyses. We thank C.N.H. McMichael for advise on data analyses and H. Hooghiemstra and two anonymous reviewers for manuscript improvements and suggestion for additional sites. The work of data contributors, data stewards, and the Neotoma community and constituent Latin American Pollen Database is gratefully acknowledged.

Keywords

Alnus
Andes
El niño
Landslides
Pollen

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Intensification of ENSO frequency drives forest disturbance in the andes during the holoceneFinal published version, 2.04 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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title = "Intensification of ENSO frequency drives forest disturbance in the Andes during the Holocene",

abstract = "The biodiverse montane forests of the tropical Andes are today frequently disturbed by rainfall-driven mass movements which occur mostly during extreme El Ni{\~n}o events. Over the coming decades these events are projected to double under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The consequent increased rainfall and mass movement events likely present an elevated risk to millions of people living in the Andes. However, the impact of more frequent rainfall extremes remains unclear due to a lack of studies that directly link past changes in El Ni{\~n}o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency to forest and landscape disturbance patterns. Here, we present the first Holocene palaeoecological record from Laguna Pallcacocha, southern Ecuador, a key site for El Ni{\~n}o reconstructions. We demonstrate that for the past 10,000 years plant taxa indicative of recolonization – such as Alnus acuminata – covary with El Ni{\~n}o-induced flood layers in the lake. An amplified forest disturbance pattern is observed in the late Holocene, suggesting enhanced slope instability following deforestation. The temporal pattern is not explained by tree line fluctuations or human impact, while the latter does amplify the impact of ENSO on landscape disturbance. Spatial correlations between modern ENSO and precipitation are consistent with a regional comparison of Holocene records of landscape disturbance. Our results indicate that climate extremes, such as those associated with future intensification of El Ni{\~n}o, combined with ongoing land use change will increase the frequency of mass movements elevating risks for millions of people in the Andes.",

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author = "K. Hagemans and Urrego, \{D. H.\} and Gosling, \{W. D.\} and Rodbell, \{D. T.\} and F. Wagner-Cremer and Donders, \{T. H.\}",

note = "Funding Information: This research was funded by the Earth and Life Science council (ALW) of the Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research (NWO) (grant number 824.14.018). Our thanks also go the Ministry of Environment of Ecuador (MAE) for providing research and fieldwork permissions (permit number 009\_SGA\_2015\_PNC\_BD\_VA\_Donders). We thank W.R. Plugge for contributing to the charcoal analyses. We thank C.N.H. McMichael for advise on data analyses and H. Hooghiemstra and two anonymous reviewers for manuscript improvements and suggestion for additional sites. The work of data contributors, data stewards, and the Neotoma community and constituent Latin American Pollen Database is gratefully acknowledged. Funding Information: This research was funded by the Earth and Life Science council (ALW) of the Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research ( NWO ) (grant number 824.14.018 ). Our thanks also go the Ministry of Environment of Ecuador (MAE) for providing research and fieldwork permissions (permit number 009\_SGA\_2015\_PNC\_BD\_VA\_Donders). We thank W.R. Plugge for contributing to the charcoal analyses. We thank C.N.H. McMichael for advise on data analyses and H. Hooghiemstra and two anonymous reviewers for manuscript improvements and suggestion for additional sites. The work of data contributors, data stewards, and the Neotoma community and constituent Latin American Pollen Database is gratefully acknowledged. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Authors",

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AU - Hagemans, K.

AU - Urrego, D. H.

AU - Gosling, W. D.

AU - Rodbell, D. T.

AU - Wagner-Cremer, F.

AU - Donders, T. H.

N1 - Funding Information: This research was funded by the Earth and Life Science council (ALW) of the Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research (NWO) (grant number 824.14.018). Our thanks also go the Ministry of Environment of Ecuador (MAE) for providing research and fieldwork permissions (permit number 009_SGA_2015_PNC_BD_VA_Donders). We thank W.R. Plugge for contributing to the charcoal analyses. We thank C.N.H. McMichael for advise on data analyses and H. Hooghiemstra and two anonymous reviewers for manuscript improvements and suggestion for additional sites. The work of data contributors, data stewards, and the Neotoma community and constituent Latin American Pollen Database is gratefully acknowledged. Funding Information: This research was funded by the Earth and Life Science council (ALW) of the Netherlands Organisation of Scientific Research ( NWO ) (grant number 824.14.018 ). Our thanks also go the Ministry of Environment of Ecuador (MAE) for providing research and fieldwork permissions (permit number 009_SGA_2015_PNC_BD_VA_Donders). We thank W.R. Plugge for contributing to the charcoal analyses. We thank C.N.H. McMichael for advise on data analyses and H. Hooghiemstra and two anonymous reviewers for manuscript improvements and suggestion for additional sites. The work of data contributors, data stewards, and the Neotoma community and constituent Latin American Pollen Database is gratefully acknowledged. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Authors

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Y1 - 2022/10/15

N2 - The biodiverse montane forests of the tropical Andes are today frequently disturbed by rainfall-driven mass movements which occur mostly during extreme El Niño events. Over the coming decades these events are projected to double under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The consequent increased rainfall and mass movement events likely present an elevated risk to millions of people living in the Andes. However, the impact of more frequent rainfall extremes remains unclear due to a lack of studies that directly link past changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency to forest and landscape disturbance patterns. Here, we present the first Holocene palaeoecological record from Laguna Pallcacocha, southern Ecuador, a key site for El Niño reconstructions. We demonstrate that for the past 10,000 years plant taxa indicative of recolonization – such as Alnus acuminata – covary with El Niño-induced flood layers in the lake. An amplified forest disturbance pattern is observed in the late Holocene, suggesting enhanced slope instability following deforestation. The temporal pattern is not explained by tree line fluctuations or human impact, while the latter does amplify the impact of ENSO on landscape disturbance. Spatial correlations between modern ENSO and precipitation are consistent with a regional comparison of Holocene records of landscape disturbance. Our results indicate that climate extremes, such as those associated with future intensification of El Niño, combined with ongoing land use change will increase the frequency of mass movements elevating risks for millions of people in the Andes.

AB - The biodiverse montane forests of the tropical Andes are today frequently disturbed by rainfall-driven mass movements which occur mostly during extreme El Niño events. Over the coming decades these events are projected to double under the 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The consequent increased rainfall and mass movement events likely present an elevated risk to millions of people living in the Andes. However, the impact of more frequent rainfall extremes remains unclear due to a lack of studies that directly link past changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) frequency to forest and landscape disturbance patterns. Here, we present the first Holocene palaeoecological record from Laguna Pallcacocha, southern Ecuador, a key site for El Niño reconstructions. We demonstrate that for the past 10,000 years plant taxa indicative of recolonization – such as Alnus acuminata – covary with El Niño-induced flood layers in the lake. An amplified forest disturbance pattern is observed in the late Holocene, suggesting enhanced slope instability following deforestation. The temporal pattern is not explained by tree line fluctuations or human impact, while the latter does amplify the impact of ENSO on landscape disturbance. Spatial correlations between modern ENSO and precipitation are consistent with a regional comparison of Holocene records of landscape disturbance. Our results indicate that climate extremes, such as those associated with future intensification of El Niño, combined with ongoing land use change will increase the frequency of mass movements elevating risks for millions of people in the Andes.

KW - Alnus

KW - Andes

KW - El niño

KW - Landslides

KW - Pollen

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85138089479

U2 - 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107762

DO - 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107762

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85138089479

SN - 0277-3791

VL - 294

SP - 1

EP - 9

JO - Quaternary Science Reviews

JF - Quaternary Science Reviews

M1 - 107762

ER -

Intensification of ENSO frequency drives forest disturbance in the Andes during the Holocene

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

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