Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Lidong Mo; Constantin M. Zohner; Peter B. Reich; Jingjing Liang; Sergio de Miguel; Gert-Jan Nabuurs; Susanne S. Renner; Johan van den Hoogen; Arnan Araza; Martin Herold; Leila Mirzagholi; Haozhi Ma; Colin Averill; Oliver L. Phillips; Javier G. P. Gamarra; Iris Hordijk; Devin Routh; Meinrad Abegg; Yves C. Adou Yao; Giorgio Alberti; Angelica M. Almeyda Zambrano; Braulio Vilchez Alvarado; Esteban Alvarez-Dávila; Patricia Alvarez-Loayza; Luciana F. Alves; Iêda Amaral; Christian Ammer; Clara Antón-Fernández; Alejandro Araujo-Murakami; Luzmila Arroyo; Valerio Avitabile; Gerardo A. Aymard; Timothy R. Baker; Radomir Bałazy; Olaf Banki; Jorcely G. Barroso; Meredith L. Bastian; Jean-Francois Bastin; Luca Birigazzi; Philippe Birnbaum; Robert Bitariho; Pascal Boeckx; Frans Bongers; Olivier Bouriaud; Pedro H. S. Brancalion; Susanne Brandl; Francis Q. Brearley; Roel Brienen; Eben N. Broadbent; Helge Bruelheide; Filippo Bussotti; Roberto Cazzolla Gatti; Ricardo G. César; Goran Cesljar; Robin L. Chazdon; Han Y. H. Chen; Chelsea Chisholm; Hyunkook Cho; Emil Cienciala; Connie Clark; David Clark; Gabriel D. Colletta; David A. Coomes; Fernando Cornejo Valverde; José J. Corral-Rivas; Philip M. Crim; Jonathan R. Cumming; Selvadurai Dayanandan; André L. de Gasper; Mathieu Decuyper; Géraldine Derroire; Ben DeVries; Ilija Djordjevic; Jiri Dolezal; Aurélie Dourdain; Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang; Brian J. Enquist; Teresa J. Eyre; Adandé Belarmain Fandohan; Tom M. Fayle; Ted R. Feldpausch; Leandro V. Ferreira; Leena Finér; Markus Fischer; Christine Fletcher; Lorenzo Frizzera; Damiano Gianelle; Henry B. Glick; David J. Harris; Andrew Hector; Andreas Hemp; Geerten Hengeveld; Bruno Hérault; John L. Herbohn; Annika Hillers; Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado; Cang Hui; Thomas Ibanez; Nobuo Imai; Andrzej M. Jagodziński; Bogdan Jaroszewicz; Vivian Kvist Johannsen; Carlos A. Joly; Tommaso Jucker; Ilbin Jung; Viktor Karminov; Kuswata Kartawinata; Elizabeth Kearsley; David Kenfack; Deborah K. Kennard; Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas; Gunnar Keppel; Mohammed Latif Khan; Timothy J. Killeen; Hyun Seok Kim; Kanehiro Kitayama; Michael Köhl; Henn Korjus; Florian Kraxner; Dmitry Kucher; Diana Laarmann; Mait Lang; Huicui Lu; Natalia V. Lukina; Brian S. Maitner; Yadvinder Malhi; Eric Marcon; Beatriz Schwantes Marimon; Ben Hur Marimon-Junior; Andrew R. Marshall; Emanuel H. Martin; Jorge A. Meave; Omar Melo-Cruz; Casimiro Mendoza; Irina Mendoza-Polo; Stanislaw Miscicki; Cory Merow; Abel Monteagudo Mendoza; Vanessa S. Moreno; Sharif A. Mukul; Philip Mundhenk; María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda; David Neill; Victor J. Neldner; Radovan V. Nevenic; Michael R. Ngugi; Pascal A. Niklaus; Jacek Oleksyn; Petr Ontikov; Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi; Yude Pan; Alain Paquette; Alexander Parada-Gutierrez; Elena I. Parfenova; Minjee Park; Marc Parren; Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy; Pablo L. Peri; Sebastian Pfautsch; Nicolas Picard; Maria Teresa F. Piedade; Daniel Piotto; Nigel C. A. Pitman; Axel Dalberg Poulsen; John R. Poulsen; Hans Pretzsch; Freddy Ramirez Arevalo; Zorayda Restrepo-Correa; Mirco Rodeghiero; Samir G. Rolim; Anand Roopsind; Francesco Rovero; Ervan Rutishauser; Purabi Saikia; Christian Salas-Eljatib; Philippe Saner; Peter Schall; Mart-Jan Schelhaas; Dmitry Schepaschenko; Michael Scherer-Lorenzen; Bernhard Schmid; Jochen Schöngart; Eric B. Searle; Vladimír Seben; Josep M. Serra-Diaz; Douglas Sheil; Anatoly Z. Shvidenko; Javier E. Silva-Espejo; Marcos Silveira; James Singh; Plinio Sist; Ferry Slik; Bonaventure Sonké; Alexandre F. Souza; Krzysztof J. Stereńczak; Jens-Christian Svenning; Miroslav Svoboda; Ben Swanepoel; Natalia Targhetta; Nadja Tchebakova; Hans ter Steege; Raquel Thomas; Elena Tikhonova; Peter M. Umunay; Vladimir A. Usoltsev; Renato Valencia; Fernando Valladares; Fons van der Plas; Tran Van Do; Michael E. van Nuland; Rodolfo M. Vasquez; Hans Verbeeck; Helder Viana; Alexander C. Vibrans; Simone Vieira; Klaus von Gadow; Hua-Feng Wang; James V. Watson; Gijsbert D. A. Werner; Susan K. Wiser; Florian Wittmann; Hannsjoerg Woell; Verginia Wortel; Roderik Zagt; Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki; Chunyu Zhang; Xiuhai Zhao; Mo Zhou; Zhi-Xin Zhu; Irie C. Zo-Bi; George D. Gann; Thomas W. Crowther

doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Lidong Mo, Constantin M. Zohner, Peter B. Reich, Jingjing Liang, Sergio de Miguel, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Susanne S. Renner, Johan van den Hoogen, Arnan Araza, Martin Herold, Leila Mirzagholi, Haozhi Ma, Colin Averill, Oliver L. Phillips, Javier G. P. Gamarra, Iris Hordijk, Devin Routh, Meinrad Abegg, Yves C. Adou Yao, Giorgio AlbertiAngelica M. Almeyda Zambrano, Braulio Vilchez Alvarado, Esteban Alvarez-Dávila, Patricia Alvarez-Loayza, Luciana F. Alves, Iêda Amaral, Christian Ammer, Clara Antón-Fernández, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Luzmila Arroyo, Valerio Avitabile, Gerardo A. Aymard, Timothy R. Baker, Radomir Bałazy, Olaf Banki, Jorcely G. Barroso, Meredith L. Bastian, Jean-Francois Bastin, Luca Birigazzi, Philippe Birnbaum, Robert Bitariho, Pascal Boeckx, Frans Bongers, Olivier Bouriaud, Pedro H. S. Brancalion, Susanne Brandl, Francis Q. Brearley, Roel Brienen, Eben N. Broadbent, Helge Bruelheide, Filippo Bussotti, Roberto Cazzolla Gatti, Ricardo G. César, Goran Cesljar, Robin L. Chazdon, Han Y. H. Chen, Chelsea Chisholm, Hyunkook Cho, Emil Cienciala, Connie Clark, David Clark, Gabriel D. Colletta, David A. Coomes, Fernando Cornejo Valverde, José J. Corral-Rivas, Philip M. Crim, Jonathan R. Cumming, Selvadurai Dayanandan, André L. de Gasper, Mathieu Decuyper, Géraldine Derroire, Ben DeVries, Ilija Djordjevic, Jiri Dolezal, Aurélie Dourdain, Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang, Brian J. Enquist, Teresa J. Eyre, Adandé Belarmain Fandohan, Tom M. Fayle, Ted R. Feldpausch, Leandro V. Ferreira, Leena Finér, Markus Fischer, Christine Fletcher, Lorenzo Frizzera, Damiano Gianelle, Henry B. Glick, David J. Harris, Andrew Hector, Andreas Hemp, Geerten Hengeveld, Bruno Hérault, John L. Herbohn, Annika Hillers, Eurídice N. Honorio Coronado, Cang Hui, Thomas Ibanez, Nobuo Imai, Andrzej M. Jagodziński, Bogdan Jaroszewicz, Vivian Kvist Johannsen, Carlos A. Joly, Tommaso Jucker, Ilbin Jung, Viktor Karminov, Kuswata Kartawinata, Elizabeth Kearsley, David Kenfack, Deborah K. Kennard, Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas, Gunnar Keppel, Mohammed Latif Khan, Timothy J. Killeen, Hyun Seok Kim, Kanehiro Kitayama, Michael Köhl, Henn Korjus, Florian Kraxner, Dmitry Kucher, Diana Laarmann, Mait Lang, Huicui Lu, Natalia V. Lukina, Brian S. Maitner, Yadvinder Malhi, Eric Marcon, Beatriz Schwantes Marimon, Ben Hur Marimon-Junior, Andrew R. Marshall, Emanuel H. Martin, Jorge A. Meave, Omar Melo-Cruz, Casimiro Mendoza, Irina Mendoza-Polo, Stanislaw Miscicki, Cory Merow, Abel Monteagudo Mendoza, Vanessa S. Moreno, Sharif A. Mukul, Philip Mundhenk, María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda, David Neill, Victor J. Neldner, Radovan V. Nevenic, Michael R. Ngugi, Pascal A. Niklaus, Jacek Oleksyn, Petr Ontikov, Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi, Yude Pan, Alain Paquette, Alexander Parada-Gutierrez, Elena I. Parfenova, Minjee Park, Marc Parren, Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy, Pablo L. Peri, Sebastian Pfautsch, Nicolas Picard, Maria Teresa F. Piedade, Daniel Piotto, Nigel C. A. Pitman, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, John R. Poulsen, Hans Pretzsch, Freddy Ramirez Arevalo, Zorayda Restrepo-Correa, Mirco Rodeghiero, Samir G. Rolim, Anand Roopsind, Francesco Rovero, Ervan Rutishauser, Purabi Saikia, Christian Salas-Eljatib, Philippe Saner, Peter Schall, Mart-Jan Schelhaas, Dmitry Schepaschenko, Michael Scherer-Lorenzen, Bernhard Schmid, Jochen Schöngart, Eric B. Searle, Vladimír Seben, Josep M. Serra-Diaz, Douglas Sheil, Anatoly Z. Shvidenko, Javier E. Silva-Espejo, Marcos Silveira, James Singh, Plinio Sist, Ferry Slik, Bonaventure Sonké, Alexandre F. Souza, Krzysztof J. Stereńczak, Jens-Christian Svenning, Miroslav Svoboda, Ben Swanepoel, Natalia Targhetta, Nadja Tchebakova, Hans ter Steege, Raquel Thomas, Elena Tikhonova, Peter M. Umunay, Vladimir A. Usoltsev, Renato Valencia, Fernando Valladares, Fons van der Plas, Tran Van Do, Michael E. van Nuland, Rodolfo M. Vasquez, Hans Verbeeck, Helder Viana, Alexander C. Vibrans, Simone Vieira, Klaus von Gadow, Hua-Feng Wang, James V. Watson, Gijsbert D. A. Werner, Susan K. Wiser, Florian Wittmann, Hannsjoerg Woell, Verginia Wortel, Roderik Zagt, Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Chunyu Zhang, Xiuhai Zhao, Mo Zhou, Zhi-Xin Zhu, Irie C. Zo-Bi, George D. Gann, Thomas W. Crowther

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	92–101
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature
Volume	624
Issue number	7990
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z
Publication status	Published - 7 Dec 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).

Funding

We sincerely acknowledge S. Lewis and D. S. Maynard for their valuable suggestions and contributions to this project. This work was supported by grants to L. Mo from the China Scholarship Council, C.M.Z. from the SNF Ambizione Fellowship programme (#PZ00P3_193646) and T.W.C. from DOB Ecology and the Bernina Foundation. We thank RESTOR (www.restor.eco) for providing data and Google Earth Engine for analytical support. This study was in part supported by the ESA Climate Change Initiative Biomass project funded by the European Space Agency (4000123662/18/I-NB) and the Open-Earth-Monitor Project funded by the European Union. The GEO-TREES initiative (https://geo-trees.org/) contributed plot data to this study, supported by the European Space Agency, IIASA, RAINFOR, AfriTRON, ForestPlots.net, ForestGEO, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, TmFO, Universite de Toulouse, University of Leeds, UCL and CIRAD. The French National Forest Inventory data were downloaded by the Global Forest Biodiversity initiative (GFBI) at https://inventaire-forestier.ign.fr/dataifn/ ; the Italian Forest Inventory data were downloaded by the GFBI at https://inventarioforestale.org/. O. Bouriaud acknowledges funding from the Romanian National Council for Higher Education Funding, CNFIS, project number CNFIS-FDI-2023-F-0579. J.-C.S. considers this work a contribution to Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO), funded by the Danish National Research Foundation (grant DNRF173) and his VILLUM Investigator project ‘Biodiversity Dynamics in a Changing World’, funded by VILLUM FONDEN (grant 16549). ForestPlots.net and RAINFOR contributions led by O.L.P. were supported by several sources, including the Royal Society (GCRF International Collaboration Award ICA\R1\180100), the European Research Council (Advanced Grant 291585), the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NE/B504630/1, NE/D010306/1, NE/G012067/1, NE/D005590/1, NE/I028122/1, NE/S011811/1) and the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation. The exploratory plots of FunDivEUROPE were established through funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant 265171. T.M.F. was supported by a Czech Science Foundation Standard Grant (21-06446 S). We thank the FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, project UIDB/04033/2020 and ICNF-Instituto da Conservação da Natureza, Portugal, National Forest Inventory for support. This study used GFBI plot data originally collected in Brazil with funding by Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) (project 520053/1998-2). We are grateful to all the ministries and agencies from the Government of Spain that supported the collection, compilation and coordination of forest inventory data, also including the Spanish Forest Inventories. S.d.M. was supported by the Serra Húnter fellowship provided by the Government of Catalonia (Generalitat de Catalunya). C. Ammer and P. Schall thank the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) Priority Program 1374 Biodiversity Exploratories. We acknowledge the use of data drawn from the Natural Forest plot data collected between January 2009 and March 2014 by the LUCAS programme for the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment. Data were sourced through the NZ National Vegetation Survey (NVS) Databank. Data from T.R.F. was supported by NERC (NE/W001691/1, NE/N011570/1, NE/R017980/1).

Funders	Funder number
Bernina Foundation
DOB
GFBI
ICNF-Instituto da Conservação da Natureza
LUCAS programme for the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment
NVS
NZ National Vegetation Survey
Spanish Forest Inventories
TmFO
Universite de Toulouse, University of Leeds
Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation
VILLUM FONDEN	16549
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Seventh Framework Programme	265171
GIST Cancer Research Fund	ICA\R1\180100
National Council for Higher Education	CNFIS-FDI-2023-F-0579
Natural Environment Research Council	NE/D005590/1, NE/I028122/1, NE/N011570/1, NE/G012067/1, NE/S011811/1, NE/W001691/1, NE/R017980/1, NE/B504630/1, NE/D010306/1
Royal Society
University College London
European Commission
European Research Council	291585
European Space Agency	4000123662/18/I-NB
Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft
Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung	00P3_193646
Danmarks Grundforskningsfond	DNRF173
Grantová Agentura České Republiky	21-06446 S
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia	UIDB/04033/2020
Generalitat de Catalunya
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico	520053/1998-2
China Scholarship Council
Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1038/s41586-023-06723-zLicence: CC BY

s41586-023-06723-zFinal published version, 4.13 MBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

Mo, L., Zohner, C. M., Reich, P. B., Liang, J., de Miguel, S., Nabuurs, G.-J., Renner, S. S., van den Hoogen, J., Araza, A., Herold, M., Mirzagholi, L., Ma, H., Averill, C., Phillips, O. L., Gamarra, J. G. P., Hordijk, I., Routh, D., Abegg, M., Adou Yao, Y. C., ... Crowther, T. W. (2023). Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential. Nature, 624(7990), 92–101 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

@article{42d2b32064c941f79b6016923a5d9b46,

title = "Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential",

abstract = " Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets. ",

author = "Lidong Mo and Zohner, {Constantin M.} and Reich, {Peter B.} and Jingjing Liang and {de Miguel}, Sergio and Gert-Jan Nabuurs and Renner, {Susanne S.} and {van den Hoogen}, Johan and Arnan Araza and Martin Herold and Leila Mirzagholi and Haozhi Ma and Colin Averill and Phillips, {Oliver L.} and Gamarra, {Javier G. P.} and Iris Hordijk and Devin Routh and Meinrad Abegg and {Adou Yao}, {Yves C.} and Giorgio Alberti and {Almeyda Zambrano}, {Angelica M.} and Alvarado, {Braulio Vilchez} and Esteban Alvarez-D{\'a}vila and Patricia Alvarez-Loayza and Alves, {Luciana F.} and I{\^e}da Amaral and Christian Ammer and Clara Ant{\'o}n-Fern{\'a}ndez and Alejandro Araujo-Murakami and Luzmila Arroyo and Valerio Avitabile and Aymard, {Gerardo A.} and Baker, {Timothy R.} and Radomir Ba{\l}azy and Olaf Banki and Barroso, {Jorcely G.} and Bastian, {Meredith L.} and Jean-Francois Bastin and Luca Birigazzi and Philippe Birnbaum and Robert Bitariho and Pascal Boeckx and Frans Bongers and Olivier Bouriaud and Brancalion, {Pedro H. S.} and Susanne Brandl and Brearley, {Francis Q.} and Roel Brienen and Broadbent, {Eben N.} and Helge Bruelheide and Filippo Bussotti and {Cazzolla Gatti}, Roberto and C{\'e}sar, {Ricardo G.} and Goran Cesljar and Chazdon, {Robin L.} and Chen, {Han Y. H.} and Chelsea Chisholm and Hyunkook Cho and Emil Cienciala and Connie Clark and David Clark and Colletta, {Gabriel D.} and Coomes, {David A.} and {Cornejo Valverde}, Fernando and Corral-Rivas, {Jos{\'e} J.} and Crim, {Philip M.} and Cumming, {Jonathan R.} and Selvadurai Dayanandan and {de Gasper}, {Andr{\'e} L.} and Mathieu Decuyper and G{\'e}raldine Derroire and Ben DeVries and Ilija Djordjevic and Jiri Dolezal and Aur{\'e}lie Dourdain and {Engone Obiang}, {Nestor Laurier} and Enquist, {Brian J.} and Eyre, {Teresa J.} and Fandohan, {Adand{\'e} Belarmain} and Fayle, {Tom M.} and Feldpausch, {Ted R.} and Ferreira, {Leandro V.} and Leena Fin{\'e}r and Markus Fischer and Christine Fletcher and Lorenzo Frizzera and Damiano Gianelle and Glick, {Henry B.} and Harris, {David J.} and Andrew Hector and Andreas Hemp and Geerten Hengeveld and Bruno H{\'e}rault and Herbohn, {John L.} and Annika Hillers and {Honorio Coronado}, {Eur{\'i}dice N.} and Cang Hui and Thomas Ibanez and Nobuo Imai and Jagodzi{\'n}ski, {Andrzej M.} and Bogdan Jaroszewicz and Johannsen, {Vivian Kvist} and Joly, {Carlos A.} and Tommaso Jucker and Ilbin Jung and Viktor Karminov and Kuswata Kartawinata and Elizabeth Kearsley and David Kenfack and Kennard, {Deborah K.} and Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas and Gunnar Keppel and Khan, {Mohammed Latif} and Killeen, {Timothy J.} and Kim, {Hyun Seok} and Kanehiro Kitayama and Michael K{\"o}hl and Henn Korjus and Florian Kraxner and Dmitry Kucher and Diana Laarmann and Mait Lang and Huicui Lu and Lukina, {Natalia V.} and Maitner, {Brian S.} and Yadvinder Malhi and Eric Marcon and Marimon, {Beatriz Schwantes} and Marimon-Junior, {Ben Hur} and Marshall, {Andrew R.} and Martin, {Emanuel H.} and Meave, {Jorge A.} and Omar Melo-Cruz and Casimiro Mendoza and Irina Mendoza-Polo and Stanislaw Miscicki and Cory Merow and {Monteagudo Mendoza}, Abel and Moreno, {Vanessa S.} and Mukul, {Sharif A.} and Philip Mundhenk and Nava-Miranda, {Mar{\'i}a Guadalupe} and David Neill and Neldner, {Victor J.} and Nevenic, {Radovan V.} and Ngugi, {Michael R.} and Niklaus, {Pascal A.} and Jacek Oleksyn and Petr Ontikov and Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi and Yude Pan and Alain Paquette and Alexander Parada-Gutierrez and Parfenova, {Elena I.} and Minjee Park and Marc Parren and Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy and Peri, {Pablo L.} and Sebastian Pfautsch and Nicolas Picard and Piedade, {Maria Teresa F.} and Daniel Piotto and Pitman, {Nigel C. A.} and Poulsen, {Axel Dalberg} and Poulsen, {John R.} and Hans Pretzsch and {Ramirez Arevalo}, Freddy and Zorayda Restrepo-Correa and Mirco Rodeghiero and Rolim, {Samir G.} and Anand Roopsind and Francesco Rovero and Ervan Rutishauser and Purabi Saikia and Christian Salas-Eljatib and Philippe Saner and Peter Schall and Mart-Jan Schelhaas and Dmitry Schepaschenko and Michael Scherer-Lorenzen and Bernhard Schmid and Jochen Sch{\"o}ngart and Searle, {Eric B.} and Vladim{\'i}r Seben and Serra-Diaz, {Josep M.} and Douglas Sheil and Shvidenko, {Anatoly Z.} and Silva-Espejo, {Javier E.} and Marcos Silveira and James Singh and Plinio Sist and Ferry Slik and Bonaventure Sonk{\'e} and Souza, {Alexandre F.} and Stere{\'n}czak, {Krzysztof J.} and Jens-Christian Svenning and Miroslav Svoboda and Ben Swanepoel and Natalia Targhetta and Nadja Tchebakova and {ter Steege}, Hans and Raquel Thomas and Elena Tikhonova and Umunay, {Peter M.} and Usoltsev, {Vladimir A.} and Renato Valencia and Fernando Valladares and {van der Plas}, Fons and {Van Do}, Tran and {van Nuland}, {Michael E.} and Vasquez, {Rodolfo M.} and Hans Verbeeck and Helder Viana and Vibrans, {Alexander C.} and Simone Vieira and {von Gadow}, Klaus and Hua-Feng Wang and Watson, {James V.} and Werner, {Gijsbert D. A.} and Wiser, {Susan K.} and Florian Wittmann and Hannsjoerg Woell and Verginia Wortel and Roderik Zagt and Tomasz Zawi{\l}a-Nied{\'z}wiecki and Chunyu Zhang and Xiuhai Zhao and Mo Zhou and Zhi-Xin Zhu and Zo-Bi, {Irie C.} and Gann, {George D.} and Crowther, {Thomas W.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, The Author(s).",

year = "2023",

month = dec,

day = "7",

doi = "10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z",

language = "English",

volume = "624",

pages = "92–101 ",

journal = "Nature",

issn = "0028-0836",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "7990",

}

Mo, L, Zohner, CM, Reich, PB, Liang, J, de Miguel, S, Nabuurs, G-J, Renner, SS, van den Hoogen, J, Araza, A, Herold, M, Mirzagholi, L, Ma, H, Averill, C, Phillips, OL, Gamarra, JGP, Hordijk, I, Routh, D, Abegg, M, Adou Yao, YC, Alberti, G, Almeyda Zambrano, AM, Alvarado, BV, Alvarez-Dávila, E, Alvarez-Loayza, P, Alves, LF, Amaral, I, Ammer, C, Antón-Fernández, C, Araujo-Murakami, A, Arroyo, L, Avitabile, V, Aymard, GA, Baker, TR, Bałazy, R, Banki, O, Barroso, JG, Bastian, ML, Bastin, J-F, Birigazzi, L, Birnbaum, P, Bitariho, R, Boeckx, P, Bongers, F, Bouriaud, O, Brancalion, PHS, Brandl, S, Brearley, FQ, Brienen, R, Broadbent, EN, Bruelheide, H, Bussotti, F, Cazzolla Gatti, R, César, RG, Cesljar, G, Chazdon, RL, Chen, HYH, Chisholm, C, Cho, H, Cienciala, E, Clark, C, Clark, D, Colletta, GD, Coomes, DA, Cornejo Valverde, F, Corral-Rivas, JJ, Crim, PM, Cumming, JR, Dayanandan, S, de Gasper, AL, Decuyper, M, Derroire, G, DeVries, B, Djordjevic, I, Dolezal, J, Dourdain, A, Engone Obiang, NL, Enquist, BJ, Eyre, TJ, Fandohan, AB, Fayle, TM, Feldpausch, TR, Ferreira, LV, Finér, L, Fischer, M, Fletcher, C, Frizzera, L, Gianelle, D, Glick, HB, Harris, DJ, Hector, A, Hemp, A, Hengeveld, G, Hérault, B, Herbohn, JL, Hillers, A, Honorio Coronado, EN, Hui, C, Ibanez, T, Imai, N, Jagodziński, AM, Jaroszewicz, B, Johannsen, VK, Joly, CA, Jucker, T, Jung, I, Karminov, V, Kartawinata, K, Kearsley, E, Kenfack, D, Kennard, DK, Kepfer-Rojas, S, Keppel, G, Khan, ML, Killeen, TJ, Kim, HS, Kitayama, K, Köhl, M, Korjus, H, Kraxner, F, Kucher, D, Laarmann, D, Lang, M, Lu, H, Lukina, NV, Maitner, BS, Malhi, Y, Marcon, E, Marimon, BS, Marimon-Junior, BH, Marshall, AR, Martin, EH, Meave, JA, Melo-Cruz, O, Mendoza, C, Mendoza-Polo, I, Miscicki, S, Merow, C, Monteagudo Mendoza, A, Moreno, VS, Mukul, SA, Mundhenk, P, Nava-Miranda, MG, Neill, D, Neldner, VJ, Nevenic, RV, Ngugi, MR, Niklaus, PA, Oleksyn, J, Ontikov, P, Ortiz-Malavasi, E, Pan, Y, Paquette, A, Parada-Gutierrez, A, Parfenova, EI, Park, M, Parren, M, Parthasarathy, N, Peri, PL, Pfautsch, S, Picard, N, Piedade, MTF, Piotto, D, Pitman, NCA, Poulsen, AD, Poulsen, JR, Pretzsch, H, Ramirez Arevalo, F, Restrepo-Correa, Z, Rodeghiero, M, Rolim, SG, Roopsind, A, Rovero, F, Rutishauser, E, Saikia, P, Salas-Eljatib, C, Saner, P, Schall, P, Schelhaas, M-J, Schepaschenko, D, Scherer-Lorenzen, M, Schmid, B, Schöngart, J, Searle, EB, Seben, V, Serra-Diaz, JM, Sheil, D, Shvidenko, AZ, Silva-Espejo, JE, Silveira, M, Singh, J, Sist, P, Slik, F, Sonké, B, Souza, AF, Stereńczak, KJ, Svenning, J-C, Svoboda, M, Swanepoel, B, Targhetta, N, Tchebakova, N, ter Steege, H, Thomas, R, Tikhonova, E, Umunay, PM, Usoltsev, VA, Valencia, R, Valladares, F, van der Plas, F, Van Do, T, van Nuland, ME, Vasquez, RM, Verbeeck, H, Viana, H, Vibrans, AC, Vieira, S, von Gadow, K, Wang, H-F, Watson, JV, Werner, GDA, Wiser, SK, Wittmann, F, Woell, H, Wortel, V, Zagt, R, Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, T, Zhang, C, Zhao, X, Zhou, M, Zhu, Z-X, Zo-Bi, IC, Gann, GD & Crowther, TW 2023, 'Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential', Nature, vol. 624, no. 7990, pp. 92–101 . https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

TY - JOUR

T1 - Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

AU - Mo, Lidong

AU - Zohner, Constantin M.

AU - Reich, Peter B.

AU - Liang, Jingjing

AU - de Miguel, Sergio

AU - Nabuurs, Gert-Jan

AU - Renner, Susanne S.

AU - van den Hoogen, Johan

AU - Araza, Arnan

AU - Herold, Martin

AU - Mirzagholi, Leila

AU - Ma, Haozhi

AU - Averill, Colin

AU - Phillips, Oliver L.

AU - Gamarra, Javier G. P.

AU - Hordijk, Iris

AU - Routh, Devin

AU - Abegg, Meinrad

AU - Adou Yao, Yves C.

AU - Alberti, Giorgio

AU - Almeyda Zambrano, Angelica M.

AU - Alvarado, Braulio Vilchez

AU - Alvarez-Dávila, Esteban

AU - Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia

AU - Alves, Luciana F.

AU - Amaral, Iêda

AU - Ammer, Christian

AU - Antón-Fernández, Clara

AU - Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro

AU - Arroyo, Luzmila

AU - Avitabile, Valerio

AU - Aymard, Gerardo A.

AU - Baker, Timothy R.

AU - Bałazy, Radomir

AU - Banki, Olaf

AU - Barroso, Jorcely G.

AU - Bastian, Meredith L.

AU - Bastin, Jean-Francois

AU - Birigazzi, Luca

AU - Birnbaum, Philippe

AU - Bitariho, Robert

AU - Boeckx, Pascal

AU - Bongers, Frans

AU - Bouriaud, Olivier

AU - Brancalion, Pedro H. S.

AU - Brandl, Susanne

AU - Brearley, Francis Q.

AU - Brienen, Roel

AU - Broadbent, Eben N.

AU - Bruelheide, Helge

AU - Bussotti, Filippo

AU - Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto

AU - César, Ricardo G.

AU - Cesljar, Goran

AU - Chazdon, Robin L.

AU - Chen, Han Y. H.

AU - Chisholm, Chelsea

AU - Cho, Hyunkook

AU - Cienciala, Emil

AU - Clark, Connie

AU - Clark, David

AU - Colletta, Gabriel D.

AU - Coomes, David A.

AU - Cornejo Valverde, Fernando

AU - Corral-Rivas, José J.

AU - Crim, Philip M.

AU - Cumming, Jonathan R.

AU - Dayanandan, Selvadurai

AU - de Gasper, André L.

AU - Decuyper, Mathieu

AU - Derroire, Géraldine

AU - DeVries, Ben

AU - Djordjevic, Ilija

AU - Dolezal, Jiri

AU - Dourdain, Aurélie

AU - Engone Obiang, Nestor Laurier

AU - Enquist, Brian J.

AU - Eyre, Teresa J.

AU - Fandohan, Adandé Belarmain

AU - Fayle, Tom M.

AU - Feldpausch, Ted R.

AU - Ferreira, Leandro V.

AU - Finér, Leena

AU - Fischer, Markus

AU - Fletcher, Christine

AU - Frizzera, Lorenzo

AU - Gianelle, Damiano

AU - Glick, Henry B.

AU - Harris, David J.

AU - Hector, Andrew

AU - Hemp, Andreas

AU - Hengeveld, Geerten

AU - Hérault, Bruno

AU - Herbohn, John L.

AU - Hillers, Annika

AU - Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N.

AU - Hui, Cang

AU - Ibanez, Thomas

AU - Imai, Nobuo

AU - Jagodziński, Andrzej M.

AU - Jaroszewicz, Bogdan

AU - Johannsen, Vivian Kvist

AU - Joly, Carlos A.

AU - Jucker, Tommaso

AU - Jung, Ilbin

AU - Karminov, Viktor

AU - Kartawinata, Kuswata

AU - Kearsley, Elizabeth

AU - Kenfack, David

AU - Kennard, Deborah K.

AU - Kepfer-Rojas, Sebastian

AU - Keppel, Gunnar

AU - Khan, Mohammed Latif

AU - Killeen, Timothy J.

AU - Kim, Hyun Seok

AU - Kitayama, Kanehiro

AU - Köhl, Michael

AU - Korjus, Henn

AU - Kraxner, Florian

AU - Kucher, Dmitry

AU - Laarmann, Diana

AU - Lang, Mait

AU - Lu, Huicui

AU - Lukina, Natalia V.

AU - Maitner, Brian S.

AU - Malhi, Yadvinder

AU - Marcon, Eric

AU - Marimon, Beatriz Schwantes

AU - Marimon-Junior, Ben Hur

AU - Marshall, Andrew R.

AU - Martin, Emanuel H.

AU - Meave, Jorge A.

AU - Melo-Cruz, Omar

AU - Mendoza, Casimiro

AU - Mendoza-Polo, Irina

AU - Miscicki, Stanislaw

AU - Merow, Cory

AU - Monteagudo Mendoza, Abel

AU - Moreno, Vanessa S.

AU - Mukul, Sharif A.

AU - Mundhenk, Philip

AU - Nava-Miranda, María Guadalupe

AU - Neill, David

AU - Neldner, Victor J.

AU - Nevenic, Radovan V.

AU - Ngugi, Michael R.

AU - Niklaus, Pascal A.

AU - Oleksyn, Jacek

AU - Ontikov, Petr

AU - Ortiz-Malavasi, Edgar

AU - Pan, Yude

AU - Paquette, Alain

AU - Parada-Gutierrez, Alexander

AU - Parfenova, Elena I.

AU - Park, Minjee

AU - Parren, Marc

AU - Parthasarathy, Narayanaswamy

AU - Peri, Pablo L.

AU - Pfautsch, Sebastian

AU - Picard, Nicolas

AU - Piedade, Maria Teresa F.

AU - Piotto, Daniel

AU - Pitman, Nigel C. A.

AU - Poulsen, Axel Dalberg

AU - Poulsen, John R.

AU - Pretzsch, Hans

AU - Ramirez Arevalo, Freddy

AU - Restrepo-Correa, Zorayda

AU - Rodeghiero, Mirco

AU - Rolim, Samir G.

AU - Roopsind, Anand

AU - Rovero, Francesco

AU - Rutishauser, Ervan

AU - Saikia, Purabi

AU - Salas-Eljatib, Christian

AU - Saner, Philippe

AU - Schall, Peter

AU - Schelhaas, Mart-Jan

AU - Schepaschenko, Dmitry

AU - Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael

AU - Schmid, Bernhard

AU - Schöngart, Jochen

AU - Searle, Eric B.

AU - Seben, Vladimír

AU - Serra-Diaz, Josep M.

AU - Sheil, Douglas

AU - Shvidenko, Anatoly Z.

AU - Silva-Espejo, Javier E.

AU - Silveira, Marcos

AU - Singh, James

AU - Sist, Plinio

AU - Slik, Ferry

AU - Sonké, Bonaventure

AU - Souza, Alexandre F.

AU - Stereńczak, Krzysztof J.

AU - Svenning, Jens-Christian

AU - Svoboda, Miroslav

AU - Swanepoel, Ben

AU - Targhetta, Natalia

AU - Tchebakova, Nadja

AU - ter Steege, Hans

AU - Thomas, Raquel

AU - Tikhonova, Elena

AU - Umunay, Peter M.

AU - Usoltsev, Vladimir A.

AU - Valencia, Renato

AU - Valladares, Fernando

AU - van der Plas, Fons

AU - Van Do, Tran

AU - van Nuland, Michael E.

AU - Vasquez, Rodolfo M.

AU - Verbeeck, Hans

AU - Viana, Helder

AU - Vibrans, Alexander C.

AU - Vieira, Simone

AU - von Gadow, Klaus

AU - Wang, Hua-Feng

AU - Watson, James V.

AU - Werner, Gijsbert D. A.

AU - Wiser, Susan K.

AU - Wittmann, Florian

AU - Woell, Hannsjoerg

AU - Wortel, Verginia

AU - Zagt, Roderik

AU - Zawiła-Niedźwiecki, Tomasz

AU - Zhang, Chunyu

AU - Zhao, Xiuhai

AU - Zhou, Mo

AU - Zhu, Zhi-Xin

AU - Zo-Bi, Irie C.

AU - Gann, George D.

AU - Crowther, Thomas W.

PY - 2023/12/7

Y1 - 2023/12/7

N2 - Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

AB - Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85176940311&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

DO - 10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

M3 - Article

C2 - 37957399

SN - 0028-0836

VL - 624

SP - 92

EP - 101

JO - Nature

JF - Nature

IS - 7990

ER -

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this