Hydropower potential in the Upper Indus basin: From theoretical values to sustainable estimates

The Indus basin ranks as one of the most vulnerable climate change hotspots globally with rapidly increasing stresses on water, food and energy. Hydropower development will be a key factor affecting the timing of water availability in the basin. A nearly five-fold increase in hydropower generation is expected in the Indus by 2030 compared to the 2010 levels. Yet, a systematic and comprehensive basin-scale exploration of hydropower potential is missing. A few global assessments provide a preliminary estimation of hydropower potential in the Indus. These show that over 80% of the potential lies in the Upper Indus where meltwater from snow and glaciers are major contributors to the river flows. But these global methods generally lack an accurate hydrological basis and do not consider basin-specific constraints that govern the realization of this hydropower potential. We couple glaciological and hydrological models to develop a high-resolution estimation of basin hydrology and subsequently we assess the theoretical hydropower potential using a novel approach. Next, based on inputs from basin stakeholders on hydropower design and Indus specific cost models we establish the technical and economic potential. In a final step, based on further deliberations with stakeholders to identify local constraints from socio-cultural, environmental, political and geo-hazard perspectives, we determine the sustainable exploitable hydropower potential. Using this systems approach, we quantify for the first time the full hydropower potential for the Indus basin from a theoretical to sustainable exploitable perspective. Our results can guide sustainable and efficient utilization of the basin potential, and set an example for the surrounding Hindu Kush Himalayas.