Hydrodynamics and morphology in the Ems/Dollard estuary: review of models, measurements, scientific literature and the effects of changing conditions

The Ems estuary has constantly changed over the past centuries both from man-made and natural influences. On the time scale of thousands of years, sea level rise has created the estuary and dynamically changed its boundaries. More recently, storm surges created the Dollard sub-basin in the 14th -15th centuries. Beginning in the 16th century, diking and reclamation of land has greatly altered the surface area of the Ems estuary, particularly in the Dollard. These natural and anthropogenic changes to the surface area of the Ems altered the flow patterns of water, the tidal characteristics, and the patterns of sediment deposition and erosion. Since 1945, reclamation of land has halted and the borders of the Ems estuary have changed little. Sea level rise has continued, and over the past 40 years the rate of increase in mean high water (MHW) along the German coast has accelerated to 40 cm/ century. Climate has varied on a decadal time scale due to long-term variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which controls precipitation, temperature, and the direction and magnitude of winds. Between 1960 and 1990 the most intense variation in the NAO index on record was observed. As a result the magnitude and frequency of storm surges increased, and mean wave heights increased at 1-2 cm/year. Currently the NAO index—and therefore storminess—is trending downwards. Over the longer term, global warming models predict an average temperature rise of 2 degrees Celsius over the next century. A doubling of CO2 is expected to increase sea level by 30 cm, while the significant wind speed and wave heights in the North Sea are predicted to increase by 50 cm/s and 50 cm, respectively. Beginning in the late 1950’s, dredging activity and construction measures in harbours and shipping channels greatly altered the physical processes in the Ems. Deepening and streamlining the Ems River and shipping channel between the 1960s and 1990s decreased the hydraulic roughness and increased the tidal range in the river above Emden by as much as 1.5 m. At the turbidity maximum between Emden and Papenburg, concentrations of sediment are currently between 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than in the 1950’s, and fluid mud layers of several meters thickness occur. Other man-made changes, such as gas pipelines and the expansion of harbours, have often caused significant, but more localized, changes to the estuary.