How do people understand the spread of COVID-19 infections? Mapping mental models of factors contributing to the pandemic

Objective: To describe the mental models people hold about the COVID-19 pandemic, with a focus on how they understand the factors that drive the spread of COVID-19 and what kind of beliefs are associated with these models. Design: In a series of three studies (total N = 461), we asked participants to identify factors that are relevant for COVID-19 proliferation (Study 1a), rate the importance of factors (Study 1 b), and create a mental model of how these factors relate to virus spread by employing a validated tool for mental model elicitation (Study 2). Main outcome measures: inclusion and centrality of factors in mental models of COVID-19 infection spread. Results: Mitigation measures issued by government, adherence to measures, and virus characteristics were most strongly represented in participants’ mental models. Participants who perceived measures as appropriate or who experienced more control and more worry over the spread of the virus created more complex models compared to participants who were less satisfied with measures or who felt lower control and less worry. Conclusion: These findings suggest that people are able to create sensible mental models of virus transmission but may appreciate transparent communication to comprehend the bigger picture behind the governmental mitigation strategy.