TY - CONF
T1 - Harmonization of Global Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100 for IPCC 5th Assessment
AU - Chini, L. P.
AU - Hurtt, G.
AU - Frolking, S.
AU - Klein Goldewijk, K.
AU - Stehfest, E.
AU - Shevliakova, E.
AU - van Vuuren, Detlef
AU - Betts, R.
AU - Feddema, J.
AU - Jones, C.
AU - Kinoshita, T.
AU - Riahi, K.
AU - Smith, S.
AU - Thornton, P.
AU - Wang, Y.
PY - 2008/12/1
Y1 - 2008/12/1
N2 - The 5th IPCC assessment will employ new integrated climate and carbon
cycle models (CMs) that, for the first time, will use gridded scenarios
of future land-use activities. In preparation for this assessment, the
international modeling community is developing four Representative
Concentration Path (RCP) scenarios developed by four Integrated
Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs). The RCP scenarios include land-use
changes and will be used as input to CMs. However, the diversity of
approaches and requirements among IAMs and CMs for tracking land-use
change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use
history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these
communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates
to future projections. Our goal is to bridge the two communities by
developing a harmonized set of land-use scenarios that smoothly connects
historical reconstructions of land- use with future projections, in the
format required by CMs. We compute consistent global gridded maps of
land-use activities and recovering lands as well as the underlying
land-use transitions including the effects of wood harvest and shifting
cultivation. We build upon the method of Hurtt et al. 2006 and use
gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.0 1500-2000
(Klein Goldewijk, in prep), historical national wood harvest and
shifting cultivation estimates from Hurtt et al. 2006, future
agricultural and wood harvest data from IAMs (AIM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, and
MiniCAM) 2000-2100, and future climate and CO2 data from IAMs. The
resulting half degree gridded maps of subgrid-scale land-use and
underlying transitions smoothly progress from past to future in a format
that can be used as input into CMs. This harmonized set of products will
provide the first consistent set of land-use change and emission
scenarios in a consistent format for a large community of CMs to enable
studies of the effects of gridded land-use changes on the global
carbon-climate system.
AB - The 5th IPCC assessment will employ new integrated climate and carbon
cycle models (CMs) that, for the first time, will use gridded scenarios
of future land-use activities. In preparation for this assessment, the
international modeling community is developing four Representative
Concentration Path (RCP) scenarios developed by four Integrated
Assessment Modeling teams (IAMs). The RCP scenarios include land-use
changes and will be used as input to CMs. However, the diversity of
approaches and requirements among IAMs and CMs for tracking land-use
change, along with the dependence of model projections on land-use
history, presents a challenge for effectively passing data between these
communities and for smoothly transitioning from the historical estimates
to future projections. Our goal is to bridge the two communities by
developing a harmonized set of land-use scenarios that smoothly connects
historical reconstructions of land- use with future projections, in the
format required by CMs. We compute consistent global gridded maps of
land-use activities and recovering lands as well as the underlying
land-use transitions including the effects of wood harvest and shifting
cultivation. We build upon the method of Hurtt et al. 2006 and use
gridded historical maps of crop and pasture data from HYDE 3.0 1500-2000
(Klein Goldewijk, in prep), historical national wood harvest and
shifting cultivation estimates from Hurtt et al. 2006, future
agricultural and wood harvest data from IAMs (AIM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, and
MiniCAM) 2000-2100, and future climate and CO2 data from IAMs. The
resulting half degree gridded maps of subgrid-scale land-use and
underlying transitions smoothly progress from past to future in a format
that can be used as input into CMs. This harmonized set of products will
provide the first consistent set of land-use change and emission
scenarios in a consistent format for a large community of CMs to enable
studies of the effects of gridded land-use changes on the global
carbon-climate system.
KW - 0428 Carbon cycling (4806)
KW - 0430 Computational methods and data processing
KW - 1622 Earth system modeling (1225)
KW - 1626 Global climate models (3337
KW - 4928)
KW - 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions (1218
KW - 1843
KW - 3322)
M3 - Abstract
SP - 378
ER -