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Guidelines for Modeling and Reporting Health Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Actions

  • Jeremy J Hess
  • , Nikhil Ranadive
  • , Chris Boyer
  • , Lukasz Aleksandrowicz
  • , Susan C Anenberg
  • , Kristin Aunan
  • , Kristine Belesova
  • , Michelle L Bell
  • , Sam Bickersteth
  • , Kathryn Bowen
  • , Marci Burden
  • , Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum
  • , Elizabeth Carlton
  • , Guéladio Cissé
  • , Francois Cohen
  • , Hancheng Dai
  • , Alan David Dangour
  • , Purnamita Dasgupta
  • , Howard Frumkin
  • , Peng Gong
    • Robert J Gould, Andy Haines, Simon Hales, Ian Hamilton, Tomoko Hasegawa, Masahiro Hashizume, Yasushi Honda, Daniel E Horton, Alexandra Karambelas, Ho Kim, Satbyul Estella Kim, Patrick L Kinney, Inza Kone, Kim Knowlton, Jos Lelieveld, Vijay S Limaye, Qiyong Liu, Lina Madaniyazi, Micaela Elvira Martinez, Denise L Mauzerall, James Milner, Tara Neville, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Shonali Pachauri, Frederica Perera, Helen Pineo, Justin V Remais, Rebecca K Saari, Jon Sampedro, Detlef Van Vuuren
  • Center for Health and the Global Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
  • Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
  • Our Planet, Our Health, Wellcome Trust, London, UK.
  • Milken Institute School of Public Health, George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
  • CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway.
  • Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • Yale University
  • Rockefeller Foundation Economic Council on Planetary Health, Oxford, UK.
  • Ritsumeikan University, Kusatsu, Japan.
  • Department of Environment Climate Change and Health, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
  • Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, USA.
  • University of Basel
  • Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment and Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
  • College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China.
  • Environmental and Resource Economics Unit, Institute of Economic Growth, Delhi, India.
  • Tsinghua University
  • Center for Climate Change Communication, George Mason University, Fairfax, Virginia, USA.
  • Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, New Zealand.
  • UCL Energy Institute, University College London, London, UK.
  • National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.
  • School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan.
  • Faculty of Health and Sport Sciences, University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Japan.
  • Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois, USA.
  • Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York USA.
  • Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
  • Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan.
  • Department of Environmental Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, USA.
  • Université Félix Houphouet-Boigny, Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire.
  • Natural Resources Defense Council, New York, New York, USA.
  • Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Dept. of Atmospheric Chemistry, Mainz, Germany.
  • National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
  • Department of Paediatric Diseases, Institute of Tropical Medicine, Nagasaki, Japan.
  • Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.
  • Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA.
  • Department of Public Health, Environments, and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
  • World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
  • CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Publica (CIBERESP), Barcelona, Spain.
  • IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.
  • Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA.
  • Bartlett Faculty of the Built Environment, University College London, London, UK.
  • Environmental Health Sciences Division, School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA.
  • Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
  • Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Leioa, Spain.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Modeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions.

METHODS: An expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies.

RESULTS: The panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting.

DISCUSSION: This checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745.

Original languageEnglish
Article number115001
Number of pages10
JournalEnvironmental Health Perspectives
Volume128
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Nov 2020

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

  1. SDG 3 - Good Health and Well-being
    SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being
  2. SDG 13 - Climate Action
    SDG 13 Climate Action

Access to Document

  • EHP6745Final published version, 518 KB

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