Grass and tree cover responses to intra-seasonal rainfall variability vary along a rainfall gradient in African tropical grassy biomes

Although it is well known that mean annual rainfall (MAR) and rainfall seasonality have a key role in influencing the distribution of tree and grass cover in African tropical grassy biomes (TGBs), the impact of intra-seasonal rainfall variability on these distributions is less agreed upon. Since the prevalent mechanisms determining biome occurrence and distribution change with MAR, this research investigates the role of intra-seasonal rainfall variability for three different MAR ranges, assessing satellite data on grass and tree cover, rainfall and fire intervals at a sub-continental scale in sub-Saharan Africa. For MAR below 630 mm y−1, rainfall frequency had a positive relationship with grass cover; this relationship however became mostly negative at intermediate MAR (630–1200 mm y−1), where tree cover correspondingly mostly increased with rainfall frequency. In humid TGBs, tree cover decreased with rainfall intensity. Overall, intra-seasonal rainfall variability plays a role in determining vegetation cover, especially in mesic TGBs, where the relative dominance of trees and grasses has previously been largely unexplained. Importantly, the direction of the effect of intra-seasonal variability changes with MAR. Given the predicted increases in rainfall intensity in Africa as a consequence of climate change, the effects on TGBs are thus likely to vary depending on the MAR levels.