Global futures of trade impacting the challenge to decarbonize the international shipping sector

Eduardo Müller-Casseres; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Alexandre Szklo; Roberto Schaeffer; Detlef P. van Vuuren

doi:10.1016/j.energy.2021.121547

Global futures of trade impacting the challenge to decarbonize the international shipping sector

Eduardo Müller-Casseres^*, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Alexandre Szklo, Roberto Schaeffer, Detlef P. van Vuuren

^*Corresponding author for this work

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

International shipping accounts for around 2 % of global CO₂ emissions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set the ambition to halve shipping GHG emissions by 2050 to help mitigate climate change. As shipping connects countries and sectors, its future development is highly dependent on regional and sectoral trends. So far, the literature on the decarbonization of shipping has focused on sectoral analyses while integrated assessment models (IAMs) have paid little attention to this matter. In this study, the IMAGE model is used to assess different futures of energy, agricultural and industry impacting the effort required to meet IMO's target for 2050. To that end, long-term seaborne trade projections are created from outputs of the IMAGE model. The results show that varying pathways of socio-economic development strongly affect the size of the sector. The mass shipped globally ranges from 17 to 35 Gt/yr in 2050. This corresponds to an energy demand between 9 and 25 EJ in the same year, which would require significant amounts of low-carbon fuels. Interestingly, in a climate policy scenario, the avoided trade of fossil energy, although partially compensated by an increase of biofuel trade, lowers the international shipping mitigation effort.

Original language	English
Article number	121547
Pages (from-to)	1-12
Journal	Energy
Volume	237
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121547
Publication status	Published - 15 Dec 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The research carried out for this paper was supported by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). This work also received funding from the NAVIGATE project of the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no 821124 . Furthermore, this project has received funding from the European Union's DG CLIMA and EuropeAid under grant agreement no. 21020701/2017/770447/SER/CLIMA.C.1 EuropeAid/138417/DH/SER/MulitOC (COMMIT). The authors would also like to thank Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Jonathan Doelman, Vassilis Daioglou and Willem-Jan van Zeist for their helpful comments. The authors are also grateful to the two anonymous reviewers for their careful reading and suggestions.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 Elsevier Ltd

Funding

The research carried out for this paper was supported by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). This work also received funding from the NAVIGATE project of the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no 821124 . Furthermore, this project has received funding from the European Union's DG CLIMA and EuropeAid under grant agreement no. 21020701/2017/770447/SER/CLIMA.C.1 EuropeAid/138417/DH/SER/MulitOC (COMMIT). The authors would also like to thank Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Jonathan Doelman, Vassilis Daioglou and Willem-Jan van Zeist for their helpful comments. The authors are also grateful to the two anonymous reviewers for their careful reading and suggestions.

Keywords

CO emissions
IMO2050
Integrated assessment modelling
International shipping

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.energy.2021.121547

1-s2.0-S0360544221017953-mainFinal published version, 1.72 MBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

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abstract = "International shipping accounts for around 2 % of global CO2 emissions. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has set the ambition to halve shipping GHG emissions by 2050 to help mitigate climate change. As shipping connects countries and sectors, its future development is highly dependent on regional and sectoral trends. So far, the literature on the decarbonization of shipping has focused on sectoral analyses while integrated assessment models (IAMs) have paid little attention to this matter. In this study, the IMAGE model is used to assess different futures of energy, agricultural and industry impacting the effort required to meet IMO's target for 2050. To that end, long-term seaborne trade projections are created from outputs of the IMAGE model. The results show that varying pathways of socio-economic development strongly affect the size of the sector. The mass shipped globally ranges from 17 to 35 Gt/yr in 2050. This corresponds to an energy demand between 9 and 25 EJ in the same year, which would require significant amounts of low-carbon fuels. Interestingly, in a climate policy scenario, the avoided trade of fossil energy, although partially compensated by an increase of biofuel trade, lowers the international shipping mitigation effort.",

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note = "Funding Information: The research carried out for this paper was supported by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq). This work also received funding from the NAVIGATE project of the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement no 821124 . Furthermore, this project has received funding from the European Union's DG CLIMA and EuropeAid under grant agreement no. 21020701/2017/770447/SER/CLIMA.C.1 EuropeAid/138417/DH/SER/MulitOC (COMMIT). The authors would also like to thank Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Jonathan Doelman, Vassilis Daioglou and Willem-Jan van Zeist for their helpful comments. The authors are also grateful to the two anonymous reviewers for their careful reading and suggestions. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 Elsevier Ltd",

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AU - van Vuuren, Detlef P.

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Global futures of trade impacting the challenge to decarbonize the international shipping sector

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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