TY - JOUR
T1 - Future surface mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet and its influence on sea level change, simulated by a regional atmospheric climate model
AU - Ligtenberg, S.R.M.
AU - van de Berg, W.J.
AU - van den Broeke, M.R.
AU - Rae, J.G.L.
AU - van Meijgaard, E.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - A regional atmospheric climate model with
multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral
boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to
assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB)
of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs
(ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two
different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as
forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states.
Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T2m)
increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200),
simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM
simulated T2m. The SMB and its components increase in
magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature
increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around
Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes.
During the next two centuries, the projected increase in
liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–
200 Gt year-1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so
runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year-1). Sublimation
increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude
smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly
determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in
2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical
response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of
20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to
the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong
relation between DSMB and DT2m of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e.
year-1 K-1 is found.
AB - A regional atmospheric climate model with
multi-layer snow module (RACMO2) is forced at the lateral
boundaries by global climate model (GCM) data to
assess the future climate and surface mass balance (SMB)
of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Two different GCMs
(ECHAM5 until 2100 and HadCM3 until 2200) and two
different emission scenarios (A1B and E1) are used as
forcing to capture a realistic range in future climate states.
Simulated ice sheet averaged 2 m air temperature (T2m)
increases (1.8–3.0 K in 2100 and 2.4–5.3 K in 2200),
simultaneously and with the same magnitude as GCM
simulated T2m. The SMB and its components increase in
magnitude, as they are directly influenced by the temperature
increase. Changes in atmospheric circulation around
Antarctica play a minor role in future SMB changes.
During the next two centuries, the projected increase in
liquid water flux from rainfall and snowmelt, together 60–
200 Gt year-1, will mostly refreeze in the snow pack, so
runoff remains small (10–40 Gt year-1). Sublimation
increases by 25–50 %, but remains an order of magnitude
smaller than snowfall. The increase in snowfall mainly
determines future changes in SMB on the AIS: 6–16 % in
2100 and 8–25 % in 2200. Without any ice dynamical
response, this would result in an eustatic sea level drop of
20–43 mm in 2100 and 73–163 mm in 2200, compared to
the twentieth century. Averaged over the AIS, a strong
relation between DSMB and DT2m of 98 ± 5 Gt w.e.
year-1 K-1 is found.
U2 - 10.1007/s00382-013-1749-1
DO - 10.1007/s00382-013-1749-1
M3 - Article
SN - 0930-7575
JO - Climate Dynamics
JF - Climate Dynamics
ER -
