Four scenarios for the future of medicines and social policy in 2030

Hubert G Leufkens; Zuzana Kusynová; Murray Aitken; Jarno Hoekman; Pieter Stolk; Kevin Klein; Aukje K Mantel-Teeuwisse

doi:10.1016/j.drudis.2022.03.018

Four scenarios for the future of medicines and social policy in 2030

Hubert G Leufkens
, Zuzana Kusynová
, Murray Aitken
, Jarno Hoekman
, Pieter Stolk
, Kevin Klein
, Aukje K Mantel-Teeuwisse

IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science
Utrecht University of Applied Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

Abstract

The future of medicines is likely determined by an array of scientific, socioeconomic, policy, medical need, and geopolitical factors, with many uncertainties ahead. Here, we report from a scenario project, analyzing various trends, crucial and complex developments in the medicines' space. From a range of 'critical uncertainties' we derived two scenario drivers: global convergence, ranging from very high (trust and solidarity), to very low (fragmented ecosystems); and disease orientation, ranging from public health first to interceptive medicine. This resulted in four contrasting portraits of the future of medicines and social policy: deprioritizing the high-end; sustainable flow; transformative healing; and global divide. All those involved in drug discovery and development can use these for strengthening preparedness for the crucial challenges ahead.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2252-2260
Number of pages	9
Journal	Drug Discovery Today
Volume	27
Issue number	8
Early online date	29 Mar 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drudis.2022.03.018
Publication status	Published - Aug 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The contributions to this project made by the 37 experts and thought leaders are highly appreciated. Furthermore, the authors would like to thank Catherine Duggan for her critical review of a draft version of this manuscript. This scenario analysis was funded by an educational grant from the Utrecht Centre for Pharmaceutical Policy and Regulation, Utrecht University. The IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science generously provided background material and data for the quantitative modeling of the scenarios.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s)

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 3 Good Health and Well-being

Keywords

Future medicines
Future trends
Global health
Scenario analysis
Social policy

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10.1016/j.drudis.2022.03.018Licence: CC BY

1-s2.0-S1359644622001283-mainFinal published version, 477 KBLicence: CC BY

Cite this

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AU - Stolk, Pieter

AU - Klein, Kevin

AU - Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K

N1 - Funding Information: The contributions to this project made by the 37 experts and thought leaders are highly appreciated. Furthermore, the authors would like to thank Catherine Duggan for her critical review of a draft version of this manuscript. This scenario analysis was funded by an educational grant from the Utrecht Centre for Pharmaceutical Policy and Regulation, Utrecht University. The IQVIA Institute for Human Data Science generously provided background material and data for the quantitative modeling of the scenarios. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 The Author(s)

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Four scenarios for the future of medicines and social policy in 2030

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

Access to Document

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