TY - JOUR
T1 - Food and land system transformations under different societal perspectives on sustainable development
AU - Weindl, Isabelle
AU - Soergel, Bjoern
AU - Ambrósio, Geanderson
AU - Daioglou, Vassilis
AU - Doelman, Jonathan
AU - Beier, Felicitas
AU - Beusen, Arthur
AU - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
AU - Bos, Astrid
AU - Dietrich, Jan Philipp
AU - Humpenöder, Florian
AU - von Jeetze, Patrick
AU - Karstens, Kristine
AU - Rauner, Sebastian
AU - Stehfest, Elke
AU - Stevanović, Miodrag
AU - van Zeist, Willem Jan
AU - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
AU - van Vuuren, Detlef
AU - Kriegler, Elmar
AU - Popp, Alexander
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
PY - 2024/12/1
Y1 - 2024/12/1
N2 - The future of food and land systems is crucial for achieving multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals, given their essential role in providing adequate nutrition and their significant impact on Earth system processes. Despite widespread consensus on the need for transformation, discussed strategies vary widely, from technology-driven to sufficiency-focused approaches, emphasizing different agents of change and policy mixes. This study assesses the implications of a new generation of target-seeking scenarios incorporating such diverse sustainability perspectives. We apply two integrated assessment models to explore food and land futures under three whole-economy sustainable development pathways (SDPs): Economy-driven Innovation, Resilient Communities, and Managing the Global Commons. Our assessment shows that the SDPs align sufficient food supply with progress towards planetary integrity, halting biodiversity loss, mitigating adverse impacts from irrigation, and significantly reducing nitrogen pollution. While all SDPs comply with the Paris climate target, they diverge in the timing of climate mitigation efforts and focus on different greenhouse gases and emission sources. The Economy-driven Innovation pathway rapidly achieves net-negative CO2 emissions from the land system, whereas the pathways Resilient Communities and Managing the Global Commons significantly decrease agricultural non-CO2 emissions. Moreover, sustainability interventions attenuate trade-offs associated with narrowly focused mitigation scenarios and reduce reliance on carbon dioxide removal strategies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.
AB - The future of food and land systems is crucial for achieving multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals, given their essential role in providing adequate nutrition and their significant impact on Earth system processes. Despite widespread consensus on the need for transformation, discussed strategies vary widely, from technology-driven to sufficiency-focused approaches, emphasizing different agents of change and policy mixes. This study assesses the implications of a new generation of target-seeking scenarios incorporating such diverse sustainability perspectives. We apply two integrated assessment models to explore food and land futures under three whole-economy sustainable development pathways (SDPs): Economy-driven Innovation, Resilient Communities, and Managing the Global Commons. Our assessment shows that the SDPs align sufficient food supply with progress towards planetary integrity, halting biodiversity loss, mitigating adverse impacts from irrigation, and significantly reducing nitrogen pollution. While all SDPs comply with the Paris climate target, they diverge in the timing of climate mitigation efforts and focus on different greenhouse gases and emission sources. The Economy-driven Innovation pathway rapidly achieves net-negative CO2 emissions from the land system, whereas the pathways Resilient Communities and Managing the Global Commons significantly decrease agricultural non-CO2 emissions. Moreover, sustainability interventions attenuate trade-offs associated with narrowly focused mitigation scenarios and reduce reliance on carbon dioxide removal strategies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.
KW - climate change mitigation
KW - dietary patterns
KW - food systems
KW - integrated assessment
KW - land systems
KW - sustainable development goals (SDGs)
KW - sustainable development pathways
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85210291793&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8f46
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/ad8f46
M3 - Letter
AN - SCOPUS:85210291793
SN - 1748-9326
VL - 19
JO - Environmental Research Letters
JF - Environmental Research Letters
IS - 12
M1 - 124085
ER -