Food and land system transformations under different societal perspectives on sustainable development

Isabelle Weindl*, Bjoern Soergel, Geanderson Ambrósio, Vassilis Daioglou, Jonathan Doelman, Felicitas Beier, Arthur Beusen, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Astrid Bos, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Florian Humpenöder, Patrick von Jeetze, Kristine Karstens, Sebastian Rauner, Elke Stehfest, Miodrag Stevanović, Willem Jan van Zeist, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Detlef van Vuuren, Elmar KrieglerAlexander Popp

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

The future of food and land systems is crucial for achieving multiple UN Sustainable Development Goals, given their essential role in providing adequate nutrition and their significant impact on Earth system processes. Despite widespread consensus on the need for transformation, discussed strategies vary widely, from technology-driven to sufficiency-focused approaches, emphasizing different agents of change and policy mixes. This study assesses the implications of a new generation of target-seeking scenarios incorporating such diverse sustainability perspectives. We apply two integrated assessment models to explore food and land futures under three whole-economy sustainable development pathways (SDPs): Economy-driven Innovation, Resilient Communities, and Managing the Global Commons. Our assessment shows that the SDPs align sufficient food supply with progress towards planetary integrity, halting biodiversity loss, mitigating adverse impacts from irrigation, and significantly reducing nitrogen pollution. While all SDPs comply with the Paris climate target, they diverge in the timing of climate mitigation efforts and focus on different greenhouse gases and emission sources. The Economy-driven Innovation pathway rapidly achieves net-negative CO2 emissions from the land system, whereas the pathways Resilient Communities and Managing the Global Commons significantly decrease agricultural non-CO2 emissions. Moreover, sustainability interventions attenuate trade-offs associated with narrowly focused mitigation scenarios and reduce reliance on carbon dioxide removal strategies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.

Original languageEnglish
Article number124085
Number of pages15
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume19
Issue number12
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.

Keywords

  • climate change mitigation
  • dietary patterns
  • food systems
  • integrated assessment
  • land systems
  • sustainable development goals (SDGs)
  • sustainable development pathways

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