Abstract
Sea level rise, especially combined with possible changes in storm surges and increased river discharge resulting from climate change, poses a major threat in low-lying river deltas. In this study we focus on a specific example of such a delta: the Netherlands. To evaluate whether the country's flood protection strategy is capable of coping with future climate conditions, an assessment of low-probability/high-impact scenarios is conducted, focusing mainly on sea level rise. We develop a plausible high-end scenario of 0. 55 to 1. 15 m global mean sea level rise, and 0. 40 to 1. 05 m rise on the coast of the Netherlands by 2100 (excluding land subsidence), and more than three times these local values by 2200. Together with projections for changes in storm surge height and peak river discharge, these scenarios depict a complex, enhanced flood risk for the Dutch delta.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 617-645 |
| Number of pages | 29 |
| Journal | Climatic Change |
| Volume | 109 |
| Issue number | 3-4 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2011 |
Funding
D. G. Vaughan British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, UK Acknowledgements The authors acknowledge the members of the Dutch Delta Committee, and in particular Pavel Kabat, for initiating this research. J.A.C. was partly funded by the Australian Climate Change Science Program and the Pacific Climate Change Science Program, which is supported by AusAID, in collaboration with the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. R.E.K. was supported by a postdoctoral fellowship in the Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy program at the Woodrow Wilson School at Princeton University.
