Explaining refugee flows. Understanding the 2015 European refugee crisis through a real options lens

Linda Peters; Peter Jan Engelen; Danny Cassimon

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0284390

Explaining refugee flows. Understanding the 2015 European refugee crisis through a real options lens

Linda Peters
, Peter Jan Engelen
, Danny Cassimon^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

In 2015 the unprecedented arrival of refugees in Europe posed serious challenges for the EU and its member countries on how to deal with such an influx. A key element in better managing refugee flows is to understand what drives these flows in a certain direction. A refugee who comes to Europe has to make trade-offs in terms of cost and benefits, duration, uncertainty and the multi-staged character of the journey. Real options models are a suitable tool for modelling these kind of decision dynamics. On the basis of a case-study, that compares three routes from Syria to Europe, we demonstrate how well the real options analysis is in line with the development of the refugee flows.

Original language	English
Article number	e0284390
Pages (from-to)	1-20
Number of pages	20
Journal	PLoS One
Volume	18
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0284390
Publication status	Published - 20 Apr 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright: © 2023 Peters et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

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Cite this

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Explaining refugee flows. Understanding the 2015 European refugee crisis through a real options lens

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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