Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

David I. Armstrong McKay; Arie Staal; Jesse F. Abrams; Ricarda Winkelmann; Boris Sakschewski; Sina Loriani; Ingo Fetzer; Sarah E. Cornell; Johan Rockström; Timothy M. Lenton

doi:10.1126/science.abn7950

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

David I. Armstrong McKay
, Arie Staal
, Jesse F. Abrams
, Ricarda Winkelmann
, Boris Sakschewski
, Sina Loriani
, Ingo Fetzer
, Sarah E. Cornell
, Johan Rockström
, Timothy M. Lenton

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global ?core? tipping elements and regional ?impact? tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to

Original language	English
Article number	eabn7950
Pages (from-to)	1-10
Number of pages	11
Journal	Science
Volume	377
Issue number	6611
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950
Publication status	Published - 9 Sept 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

Keywords

Antarctic ice-sheet
Carbon
Co2
Collapse
Early-warning signals
Elements
Mass-loss
Sea-level
Thresholds
Thwaites

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1126/science.abn7950

science.abn7950Final published version, 1.24 MBLicence: Taverne

Cite this

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abstract = "Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global ?core? tipping elements and regional ?impact? tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of \textasciitilde{}1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to ",

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AU - Armstrong McKay, David I.

AU - Staal, Arie

AU - Abrams, Jesse F.

AU - Winkelmann, Ricarda

AU - Sakschewski, Boris

AU - Loriani, Sina

AU - Fetzer, Ingo

AU - Cornell, Sarah E.

AU - Rockström, Johan

AU - Lenton, Timothy M.

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N2 - Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global ?core? tipping elements and regional ?impact? tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to

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KW - Antarctic ice-sheet

KW - Carbon

KW - Co2

KW - Collapse

KW - Early-warning signals

KW - Elements

KW - Mass-loss

KW - Sea-level

KW - Thresholds

KW - Thwaites

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85137602398

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DO - 10.1126/science.abn7950

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VL - 377

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JF - Science

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M1 - eabn7950

ER -

Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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