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Evolution of a new tidal river bifurcation: Numerical modelling of an avulsion after a catastrophic storm surge

  • TNO - Geological Survey of the Netherlands

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

In 1421, the St. Elisabeth storm surge catastrophy transformed medieval reclaimed land into a wide tidal embayment known now as the Biesbosch area. The main delta distributary of the Rhine (river Merwede) diverted into the Biesbosch area estuary, effectively shortening its course to the North Sea by 10- 15 km. A shallow delta, about 10×20 km large and 2m thick formed in about 200 years. This study aims to investigate 1) the evolution of delta formation into the Biesbosch area and simultaneously 2) the evolution of the river channel upstream of the Merwede diversion site, using insights from numerical modelling (Delft2D). The initial and boundary conditions for the model scenarios are derived from historical maps since 1550AD, geological cross-sections, modern tidal ranges and river discharge. The model simulates delta formation at progradation rates that are in agreement with the historical data. Basin depth and tidal boundary conditions were varied in 20 scenarios. Geological reconstructions for these properties are relatively uncertain. The scenario with 2m depth and 2m tides best resembles measured delta progradation rates. The pre-storm surge river channel, downstream of the diversion site, does not silt up because the partly subaerial levee directs water into it. In the river upstream of the diversion site, no significant incision nor aggradation is simulated for the post-storm surge condition for any scenario. 17th century river engineers suggested that the developments in the Biesbosch area explain a change of discharge division at the bifurcation at the delta apex some 100 km upstream (Lobith), which is believed until today. However, our results do not support such a causal link between the bifurcation events in the Biesbosch area and in the bifurcation at the delta apex. This is of importance for the development of a larger model, covering the complete Rhine delta and simulating their development for the period 800-1800AD.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationRiver, Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics
Subtitle of host publicationRCEM 2007 - Proceedings of the 5th IAHR Symposium on River, Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics
Pages815-822
Number of pages8
Publication statusPublished - 2008
Event5th IAHR-Symposium on River, Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics, RCEM 2007 - Enschede, Netherlands
Duration: 17 Sept 200721 Sept 2007

Publication series

NameRiver, Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics: RCEM 2007 - Proceedings of the 5th IAHR Symposium on River, Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics
Volume2

Conference

Conference5th IAHR-Symposium on River, Coastal and Estuarine Morphodynamics, RCEM 2007
Country/TerritoryNetherlands
CityEnschede
Period17/09/0721/09/07

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