Abstract
The climate science community is challenged to adopt an actionable risk perspective, which is difficult to align with the traditional focus on model-based probabilistic climate change projections. Event-based storylines can provide a way out of this conundrum by putting emphasis on plausibility rather than probability. This links directly to common practices in disaster risk management using “stress-testing” for emergency preparedness based on events that are conditional on specific and plausible assumptions. Event-based storylines allow for conditional explanations, without full attribution of every causal factor, which is crucial when some aspects of the latter are complex and highly uncertain.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | e2020EF001783 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | Earth's Future |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| DOIs |
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| Publication status | Published - Feb 2021 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:The authors acknowledge the insightful discussions and presentations held at the Workshop on “Physical modeling supporting a storyline approach” in Oslo, Norway (April 2019, https://www.cicero.oslo.no/en/publications-and-events_twex/workshop-on-physical-modeling-supporting-a-storyline-approach ) and the Workshop on Correlated Extremes in New York, USA (May 2019, http://extremeweather.columbia.edu/workshop-on-correlated-extremes/ ), both supported by the European COST Action DAMOCLES (CA17109) and the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. J. Sillmann particularly acknowledges the discussion with Kate White (US Army Corps of Engineers) that helped consolidating thoughts for this commentary. J. Sillmann was supported through the TWEX (grant #255037) and TWEX‐film (grant nr. 304551) projects funded by the Research Council of Norway. J. Zscheischler acknowledges the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant nr. 179876), O. Martius acknowledges the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant nr. 178751). T. G. Shepherd acknowledges the European Research Council (grant 339390). We further acknowledge the comments of two reviewers that helped to improve this Commentary.
Funding Information:
The authors acknowledge the insightful discussions and presentations held at the Workshop on ?Physical modeling supporting a storyline approach? in Oslo, Norway (April 2019, https://www.cicero.oslo.no/en/publications-and-events_twex/workshop-on-physical-modeling-supporting-a-storyline-approach) and the Workshop on Correlated Extremes in New York, USA (May 2019, http://extremeweather.columbia.edu/workshop-on-correlated-extremes/), both supported by the European COST Action DAMOCLES (CA17109) and the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. J. Sillmann particularly acknowledges the discussion with Kate White (US Army Corps of Engineers) that helped consolidating thoughts for this commentary. J. Sillmann was supported through the TWEX (grant #255037) and TWEX-film (grant nr. 304551) projects funded by the Research Council of Norway. J. Zscheischler acknowledges the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant nr. 179876), O. Martius acknowledges the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant nr. 178751). T. G. Shepherd acknowledges the European Research Council (grant 339390). We further acknowledge the comments of two reviewers that helped to improve this Commentary.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020. The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.
Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
Funding
The authors acknowledge the insightful discussions and presentations held at the Workshop on “Physical modeling supporting a storyline approach” in Oslo, Norway (April 2019, https://www.cicero.oslo.no/en/publications-and-events_twex/workshop-on-physical-modeling-supporting-a-storyline-approach ) and the Workshop on Correlated Extremes in New York, USA (May 2019, http://extremeweather.columbia.edu/workshop-on-correlated-extremes/ ), both supported by the European COST Action DAMOCLES (CA17109) and the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. J. Sillmann particularly acknowledges the discussion with Kate White (US Army Corps of Engineers) that helped consolidating thoughts for this commentary. J. Sillmann was supported through the TWEX (grant #255037) and TWEX‐film (grant nr. 304551) projects funded by the Research Council of Norway. J. Zscheischler acknowledges the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant nr. 179876), O. Martius acknowledges the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant nr. 178751). T. G. Shepherd acknowledges the European Research Council (grant 339390). We further acknowledge the comments of two reviewers that helped to improve this Commentary. The authors acknowledge the insightful discussions and presentations held at the Workshop on ?Physical modeling supporting a storyline approach? in Oslo, Norway (April 2019, https://www.cicero.oslo.no/en/publications-and-events_twex/workshop-on-physical-modeling-supporting-a-storyline-approach) and the Workshop on Correlated Extremes in New York, USA (May 2019, http://extremeweather.columbia.edu/workshop-on-correlated-extremes/), both supported by the European COST Action DAMOCLES (CA17109) and the WCRP Grand Challenge on Weather and Climate Extremes. J. Sillmann particularly acknowledges the discussion with Kate White (US Army Corps of Engineers) that helped consolidating thoughts for this commentary. J. Sillmann was supported through the TWEX (grant #255037) and TWEX-film (grant nr. 304551) projects funded by the Research Council of Norway. J. Zscheischler acknowledges the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant nr. 179876), O. Martius acknowledges the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant nr. 178751). T. G. Shepherd acknowledges the European Research Council (grant 339390). We further acknowledge the comments of two reviewers that helped to improve this Commentary.
Keywords
- climate change
- decision-making
- high-impact events
- low likelihood
- risk
- storylines
