Evasion of tipping in complex systems through spatial pattern formation

Rietkerk Max, Bastiaansen Robbin, Banerjee Swarnendu, van de Koppel Johan, Baudena Mara, Doelman Arjen

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

Abstract

The concept of tipping points and critical transitions helps inform our understanding of the catastrophic effects that global change may have on ecosystems, Earth system components, and the whole Earth system. The search for early warning indicators is ongoing, and spatial self-organization has been interpreted as one such signal. Here, we review how spatial self-organization can aid complex systems to evade tipping points and can therefore be a signal of resilience instead. Evading tipping points through various pathways of spatial pattern formation may be relevant for many ecosystems and Earth system components that hitherto have been identified as tipping prone, including for the entire Earth system. We propose a systematic analysis that may reveal the broad range of conditions under which tipping is evaded and resilience emerges.

Original languageEnglish
Article number169
Pages (from-to)1-9
Number of pages9
JournalScience
Volume374
Issue number6564
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 8 Oct 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
M. te Beest and A. Staal critically reviewed earlier versions of this manuscript. M. Eppinga, J. Rademacher, E. Siero, K. Siteur, and S. van der Stelt contributed to research that led to new insights leading to this paper. We thank T. Markus for designing figures. Funding: The research leading to this paper was funded by the Netherlands Organization of Scientific Research, NWO Complexity and NWO Mathematics of Planet Earth programs. This project is TiPES contribution no. 83. This project has received funding from the European Union?s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement 820970. Author contributions: All authors contributed to the conceptualization and research ideas. M.R., A.D., and R.B. wrote the original draft, and all authors contributed to reviewing and editing the paper. M.R., R.B., S.B., J.v.d.K., and M.B. prepared visual materials. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.

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