Evaluating the accuracy and effectiveness of criminal geographic profiling methods: The case of Dandora, Kenya

L Mburu, M Helbich

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Criminal geographic profiling (CGP) prioritizes offender search, extensively reducing the resources expended in criminal
investigations. The utility of CGP has, however, remained unclear when variations in environmental characteristics and offense
type are introduced. This study evaluates several CGP strategies with data from Dandora, a small but densely populated suburb
of Nairobi, Kenya. The research employs error distance and search-cost measures to determine CGP accuracy. Characterized
by much shorter journeys to crime than those observed in Western cities, this study discovers significant applicability of CGP
strategies in prioritizing offender searches. The negative exponential CGP strategy is identified to generate the most accurate
geo-profiles.
Original languageUndefined/Unknown
Pages (from-to)110–120
JournalThe Professional Geographer
Volume67
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015
Externally publishedYes

Keywords

  • Crime Analysis
  • criminal geographic profiling
  • Nairobi (Kenya)
  • offender travel
  • serial offense

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