Epidemiological models to assist the management of highly pathogenic avian influenza

In recent decades, epidemiological models have been used more and more
frequently as a tool for the design of programmes for the management of
infectious diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza. Predictive models
are used to simulate the effects of various control measures on the spread of the
infection; analytical models are used to analyse data from outbreaks and
experiments. A key parameter in these models is the reproduction ratio, which
indicates to what degree the virus can be transmitted in the population.
Parameters obtained from real data using the analytical models can be used
subsequently in predictive models to evaluate control strategies or surveillance
programmes. Examples of the use of these models are described in the current
paper.