Abstract
New societal trends are unfolding, such as digitalization, sharing economy and consumer awareness. They will highly influence future energy demand and, depending on their realization, enhance or counteract projected energy efficiency gains. Therefore, these trends have to be accompanied by policies with a strong focus on reducing energy demand (including Energy Efficiency First). This work analyzes quantitatively for all sectors how New Societal Trends interact with energy efficiency (policies).
An extensive consultation with European experts identified 12 new societal trends that are likely to shape future energy demand. Based on these, four energy demand scenarios were developed for 2050. Using literature review and expert consultations, the impacts on all sectors were evaluated taking these trends explicitly into account. The results show that New Societal Trends can have a crucial impact on future energy demand beyond mere techno-economic potentials. In the best case scenario, “New Trends Efficient”, they can reduce final energy demand by 67% compared to the EU “Baseline” scenario in 2050. While in the “Worst Case” scenario, they could increase final energy demand by 40%.
This paper opens up the discussion on how New Societal Trends will shape future energy demand and emphasizes the crucial role of policy-making therein.
An extensive consultation with European experts identified 12 new societal trends that are likely to shape future energy demand. Based on these, four energy demand scenarios were developed for 2050. Using literature review and expert consultations, the impacts on all sectors were evaluated taking these trends explicitly into account. The results show that New Societal Trends can have a crucial impact on future energy demand beyond mere techno-economic potentials. In the best case scenario, “New Trends Efficient”, they can reduce final energy demand by 67% compared to the EU “Baseline” scenario in 2050. While in the “Worst Case” scenario, they could increase final energy demand by 40%.
This paper opens up the discussion on how New Societal Trends will shape future energy demand and emphasizes the crucial role of policy-making therein.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 112216 |
| Number of pages | 15 |
| Journal | Energy Policy |
| Volume | 152 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - May 2021 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:This study was supported by “The Coalition for Energy Savings” as part of the project “Developing a 2050 Energy Efficiency Vision”. Furthermore, this work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the project NewTRENDs with the grant agreement no. 893311 .
Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors
Keywords
- Energy demand
- Energy efficiency
- Energy policy
- Energy scenarios
- European targets 2050
- New societal trends
