TY - JOUR
T1 - Energy efficiency potentials in the EU industry
T2 - impacts of deep decarbonization technologies
AU - Kermeli, Katerina
AU - Crijns-Graus, Wina
AU - Johannsen, Rasmus Magni
AU - Mathiesen, Brian Vad
N1 - Funding Information:
This paper is part of the sEEnergies project which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 846463 ( www.seenergiesproject.eu ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).
PY - 2022/12/9
Y1 - 2022/12/9
N2 - Increasing the energy efficiency in high energy demand sectors such as industry with a high reliance on coal, oil and natural gas is considered a pivotal step towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting the Paris Agreement targets. The European Commission published final energy demand projections for industry capturing current policies and market trends up to 2050. This Reference scenario for industry in 2050, however, does not give insights into the extent to which energy efficiency potentials are already implemented, in which sectors further efficiency can be achieved, to what extent or with which technologies. In this paper, the EU Reference scenario is broken down and compared to a Frozen Efficiency scenario with similar GDP developments but without energy efficiency. Through bottom-up analyses, it is found that with energy efficiency technologies alone, this Reference scenario for industry energy demands (10.6 EJ in 2050) cannot be achieved. That means that the EU Reference assumes higher energy efficiency than possible and too high an effect of current policies. In the Frozen Efficiency scenario, the energy demand reaches 14.2 EJ in 2050 due to the GDP development; 22% higher than 2015. Energy efficiency improvements and increased recycling can decrease industrial energy demand by 23% (11.3 EJ in 2050). In order to further reduce the energy demand, our analyses shows that the wide implementation of innovative in combination with electrification or hydrogen technologies can further decrease the 2050 energy demand to 9.7 EJ or 10.3 EJ, respectively.
AB - Increasing the energy efficiency in high energy demand sectors such as industry with a high reliance on coal, oil and natural gas is considered a pivotal step towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions and meeting the Paris Agreement targets. The European Commission published final energy demand projections for industry capturing current policies and market trends up to 2050. This Reference scenario for industry in 2050, however, does not give insights into the extent to which energy efficiency potentials are already implemented, in which sectors further efficiency can be achieved, to what extent or with which technologies. In this paper, the EU Reference scenario is broken down and compared to a Frozen Efficiency scenario with similar GDP developments but without energy efficiency. Through bottom-up analyses, it is found that with energy efficiency technologies alone, this Reference scenario for industry energy demands (10.6 EJ in 2050) cannot be achieved. That means that the EU Reference assumes higher energy efficiency than possible and too high an effect of current policies. In the Frozen Efficiency scenario, the energy demand reaches 14.2 EJ in 2050 due to the GDP development; 22% higher than 2015. Energy efficiency improvements and increased recycling can decrease industrial energy demand by 23% (11.3 EJ in 2050). In order to further reduce the energy demand, our analyses shows that the wide implementation of innovative in combination with electrification or hydrogen technologies can further decrease the 2050 energy demand to 9.7 EJ or 10.3 EJ, respectively.
KW - Decarbonization
KW - Electrification
KW - Energy efficiency
KW - Hydrogen technologies
KW - Industry
KW - Scenario analysis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85143670121&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s12053-022-10071-8
DO - 10.1007/s12053-022-10071-8
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85143670121
SN - 1570-646X
VL - 15
JO - Energy Efficiency
JF - Energy Efficiency
IS - 8
M1 - 68
ER -